Will She or Won’t She? Computer Models Struggle to Forecast Irma – 1700 Update

CDN – http://www.conservativedailynews.com

By Rich Mitchell

Supercomputers are struggling to nail down the path of Category 5 Hurricane Irma leaving forecasters with multiple possibilities for the storm’s track and intensity as she nears the Florida Straights and the U.S. Southeastern coast.

This is the most updated post, but you can follow all of our Irma coverage HERE.

Hurricane Irma’s Current Position and Track

That national weather service is currently forecasting landfall in southeastern Florida somewhere from Miami to West Palm Beach area and the latest computer models show a similar track.

1700 AST/EDT (2100 UTC) Update from National Weather Service

• Location: 18.8 N, 65.4 W – 38 miles Northeast of Puerto Rico
• Strength: 185 mph max sustained winds (Very Strong Category 5)
• Movement: WNW (285 deg.) at 14 mph
• Pressure: 914 mb down from 918 mb at last update –  may indicate strengthening

*next update at 8 pm EDT – check our Irma update page for new information

The latest satellite imagery shows the clearly defined eyewall and strong outflow expected from a storm of this intensity.

Irma is a very strong category five storm but is expected to weaken to a category four hurricane with 145 mph winds over the next 4 days as it skirts Puerto Rico and hits the Bahamas before approaching Florida.

Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

Computer Models for Hurricane Irma

Computer models are widely varied as to Irma’s track through the Florida straights and near Florida. The timing of the storm’s northward turn is uncertain which could lead to a Florida landfall or hold Irma to the east of Florida and a Georgia or South Carolina landfall.

Early cycle model consensus has drifted a bit westward since the last run.

Late cycle model consensus puts the track making landfall in Miami and continuing up the coast to Port St. Lucie before going offshore and heading towards South Carolina for a second landfall.

The computer models are forming consensus around two different possibilities for Irma’s continued strength. One set shows the storm holding onto 185+ mph winds while the other group expects the storm to continually weaken over the next few days to between 120 to 145 mph.

U.S. Impacts

Florida

The National Weather Service forecasts a direct hit to southeast Florida and computer models show that to still be a possibility. As the storm could go anywhere in the forecast cone, Florida is still in danger of a direct impact or the storm could stay off the coast and strike the Carolinas. Florida’s Governor Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency to help the state prepare for what could be a major hurricane when it reaches the sunshine state.

Today, Governor Rick Scott issued Executive Order 17-235 declaring a state of emergency in all 67 counties within the State of Florida in response to Hurricane Irma – a major Category 4 storm approaching Florida. By declaring a state of emergency in all 67 Florida counties, Governor Scott is ensuring that local governments have ample time, resources and flexibility to get prepared for this dangerous storm and are not hindered, delayed or prevented from taking all necessary actions to keep communities safe.

Floridians should start preparing now to either shelter-in-place or evacuate. If Irma tracks towards Florida, additional evacuations will likely be posted. Don’t wait until the last minute and please listen to local authorities for instructions.

Georgia

Georgia has declared a state of emergency. No evacuation orders are in place. Atlanta area hotels have begun filling up as those in low-lying areas seek shelter.

South Carolina

South Carolina has declared a state of emergency, no evacuation orders are in place.

Governor Henry McMaster said that residents should start preparations for Irma as if she were coming tomorrow.

“Now is the time to prepare,” McMaster warned during a news conference at the S.C. Emergency Management Division headquarters on Wednesday. “When it’s too late, it’s too late and that’s when we have a lot sadness.”

Watches and Warnings

Areas under Hurricane Warning

* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

Areas under Hurricane Watch

* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province
* Northwestern Bahamas

Areas under Tropical Storm Warning

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

Areas under Tropical Storm Watch

* None

What to Expect from Hurricane Irma

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands…15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic…3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave…1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

Water levels in the Leeward Islands will gradually subside tonight.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide…

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix…7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico…4 to 6 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix…2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical Storm and Hurricane conditions are occurring over
the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and will spread westward over
portions of Puerto Rico tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected
to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic
and Haiti early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning
area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Thursday with tropical storm conditions by late tonight. These
conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by Thursday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in the central Bahamas and Cuba by Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in
Cuba Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Northern Leeward Islands…Additional 1 to 3 inches. Storm total 8
to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands…6 to
12 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southwest Puerto Rico…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
The Southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix…2 to 4 inches.
Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos…8 to
12 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti…4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches.
Eastern and Central Cuba…4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Southwest Haiti…1 to 4 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican
Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States
during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

When to Expect Hurricane Irma and Where

INIT 06/2100Z 18.8N 65.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.6W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 21.5N 73.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.2N 75.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.2N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 26.0N 80.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 31.0N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

The article Will She or Won’t She? Computer Models Struggle to Forecast Irma – 1700 Update is original content from Conservative Daily News.

CDN – http://www.conservativedailynews.com