The Next Wars: The 16 brewing conflicts to watch for in 2011

Dateline Zero - Foreign Policy has a look at some likely candidates for the next war. You know, because governments are always looking for the next one, right? On the list: Mexico, Guatemala, Sudan, Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Colombia, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Haiti, Tajikistan, Pakistan , Lebanon, Nigeria, Guinea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and yes Iraq.

About Guatemala, Foreign Policy says:

Mexico’s drug war is also sending shockwaves throughout Latin America. Under pressure from the Mexican state, the most infamous cartels are seeking friendlier ground and finding it in Guatemala, where the state is weak and the institutions are fragile. In the worst case scenario for 2011, Guatemala could be host to a perpetual turf war of attrition between these various cartels, all competing to control drug trafficking routes — and increasingly human-trafficking corridors — to the United States.

So far, Guatemala’s best ally in fighting back has been the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a tribunal-like institution set up to root out corrupt and cartel-tainted officials. But its mandate ends in 2011 and its star prosecutor recently resigned, claiming that the political leadership was thwarting his work. Presidential elections are slotted for August, but early polls suggest a polarized nation, with around 20 candidates and no clear front runner. That’s just the sort of uncertainty that cartels are good at exploiting.

Read more at Dateline Zero.