Do Sanctions Lead to War?

by Gilles Van Nederveen and Dr. Inna Mattei

January 7, 2012

Will the new sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 lead to a similar show-down between Iran and the United States? Today a military confrontation seems highly likely. However instead of a Pearl Harbor-like attack, we may see a war of proxy agents under the banner of global terrorism or Mid-Eastern strife.  Iran will not challenge U.S. power directly but there are numerous points globally that allow Iran to inflict pain on the United States. Hezbollah in Lebanon may target Israeli and U.S interests, terrorism in any country is an option, attempting a homeland U.S. assault is not unthinkable. Iran is still smarting up from a cyber-attack; it may unleash cyber or biological warfare targeting economic or life lines (such as drinkable water) in an attempt to force the world to ease sanctions on the regime. “Hot” conflict could occur in the Persian Gulf or in any of the neighboring countries.

Sanctions as a weapon have been largely ineffective, especially during the Cold War, when the world was divided into two competing camps. In the current environment, with greater interdependence and multi-polarity, sanctions are even less effective, and they are certainly more difficult to carry out. In his recent book Sanctions as Grand Strategy, Brendan Taylor argues that countries often use sanctions to influence each other and not the targeted nations. Thus, sanctions take on another role – influence.

As a mechanism of influence, sanctions are not a clear input-output system.  In a multipolar world, hungry for natural resources tied to the health of global economic system, sanctions can be subverted.  If using sanctions, as in the case of Japan Pre-World War II may lead to war in the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz, we should be extremely cautious with this approach.

International sanctions on Iran began in 2006. Some of U.S. sanctions date as far back as the 1979 revolution, when the Islamic Republic of Iran seized the U.S. embassy in Teheran. Starting with the nuclear program that raised the ire of the international community, the world has sought to designate parts of the Iranian economy (such as oil) as supporting global terrorism. Individuals and companies engaged in the development of weapons of mass destruction or terrorism are targeted by sanctions. There is also a ban on financial services supporting the development of such programs. MORE