New Mexico Facing Catastrophic Fire Season (video and pictures)
An Early Look into the 2014 New Mexico Wildfire Season | |||||
The 2013-14 New Mexico late fall-early winter season started out wet, however, the spicket slowly turned to barely a trickle after mid December. January was the driest on record with a statewide precipitation average of 0.03 inches. A persistent blocking ridge (Fig. 1) developed over the west coast during January. This upper level ridge steered the storm systems away from New Mexico. | |||||
The pattern changed during the first week of February as a strong jet undercut the blocking ridge and allowed abundant Pacific moisture to flow in from the west. The blocking ridge pattern redeveloped in a less amplified form over the west coast by mid-February and returned New Mexico to a drier and warmer pattern. | |||||
During the winter season, it is important for wildland fire managers to anticipate the conditions of the upcoming fire season. Several metrics are examined to determine fire season severity including anticipated fuel loading and dryness. In addition, long range weather forecasts as well as drought indices and trends are considered. Given the current conditions, New Mexico fire managers are facing a grim and potentially extreme situation. There is a significant carryover of ground fuels from last year’s growing season. The series of photos below were taken at the same Albuquerque foothills location from June through September of 2013, and illustrate the evolution of fuel growth during 2013. The spring growing season was muted, if not non-existent, during the spring to early summer growing period due to the poor preceding winter snowpack and a lack of spring rain. The summer Monsoon and historic September precipitation changed conditions and allowed warm season forbs, weeds and grasses to grow with vigor. The Albuquerque foothills scene is representative of a large portion of the non-grazed New Mexico landscape, especially across the lower elevations where most of the population resides. |
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Photos coutesy of Brent Wachter | |||||
The grasses have since turned dormant and now provide significant carryover fuel. Wildland fire mangers next consider whether there has been sufficient enough heavy-wet snow to mat or compress the standing grass. Snowfall thus far has been well below normal but some areas did receive enough early season (November-early December) snow to partially mat down some of the previous grass growth. This is important because standing grass is much more susceptible to fire spread than matted grass. Figure 3 shows a photo series taken at similar times at a Sandia mountain location (at 8000 feet) east of Albuquerque from 2010 to 2014. The 2014 photo shows some grass compaction while the 2013 photo showed little grass compaction. | |||||
SOURCE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE |
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