El Nino Gets A Second Burst From A Kelvin Wave! The New Update Shows the uptick to warmer waters.

Here we are in Mid August and El Nino is playing a “look at me again game” as a piece of the Kelvin Wave from earlier this summer makes a run for warmer Pacific El Nino based waters. Back in June and July ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from downwelling.  This pool of water headed west but feed itself back into the western equatorial Pacific to bring back a mini surge in El Nino in the coming months. What does this all mean? Mother Nature may be playing the comeback game after a two month downside away from El Nino chances.  The current risk for El Nino this fall and winter is at about 66% on the American Outlook, 50% from the Aussie Mets and we here at liveweatherblogs.com sit in the 70% range.

We have been looking at the 1982-83 El Nino and also the 1997-1998 and 2009-2010 El Nino events and and not seeing the comparisons as much as I saw earlier this summer. What I do see and since I have been keeping a close eye on the downwelling of the Kelvin Wave, are the evolution comparisons using warm water anomalies and depth-averaged temperature anomalies from NOAA TAO project website.

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