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Gold Bullion Hits Near 6-Year Low on US-vs-Euro 'Divergence' as Precious Metals 'Near Capitulation'

Thursday, November 12, 2015 9:00

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Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the world-leading gold trading & ownership service online…

GOLD BULLION slipped to its lowest Dollar price in almost 6 years Thursday lunchtime in London, dropping with the Euro currency and other precious metals as Western stock markets fell hard.

Betting in the futures market put chances that the US Federal Reserve will next month raise its key lending rate from 0% at stronger than two-in-three.

Speaking ahead of a raft of other Federal Reserve policymakers, including chair Janet Yellen, “Prudence alone suggests [we should] normalize the policy rate in the US,” said St.Louis Fed president James Bullard – a noted ‘hawk’ due to join the voting panel in 2016 – in a speech this morning.

“The US economy is quite close to normal [with] unemployment of 5%…and inflation net of the 2014 oil price shock only slightly below the committee’s [2.0% per year] target.”

The Euro meantime touched fresh 7-month lows on the FX market after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said external “risks” to economic recovery in the 340-million citizen single-currency zone are “clearly visible” – taken as a sign of fresh monetary stimulus to come at the ECB’s December meeting.

“Failing to deliver a pre-warned easing risks a surge in the Euro,” says ICBC Standard Bank FX strategist Steven Barrow, now forecasting that the ECB will cut deposit rates further below – and perhaps increase its QE bond-buying – at the same time as the US Federal Reserve finally raises Dollar rates from 0% after 7 years.

“To help push inflation back to the 2% target [by devaluing the Euro]…the ECB will get more bang for the buck by kicking off a divergence in policy with the Fed in December.”

Gold prices today hit $1074 per ounce in London’s wholesale bullion trade, $3 below July’s bottom and the lowest level in spot dealing since February 2010.

“It seems increasingly likely the Fed will start a slow rate hike cycle in December,” says a note from Dutch bank ABN Amro, “resulting in a stronger US Dollar versus the Euro, Yen and precious metals.”

Gold bullion priced in Euros also fell Thursday but less steeply, touching 5-week lows just above €1000 per ounce and still showing a 2.5% gain for 2015 to date.

Bullion priced in Dollars, in contrast, has lost 8.2% since the New Year.

Palladium also hit new 6-year lows, while platinum fell for the 11th session in a row to touch its lowest level since 2008 in wholesale trade.

“Capitulation may be close at hand,” says ICBC Standard Bank precious metals strategist Tom Kendall, “but it does not feel like we are there yet.”

Wholesale silver bullion bars spiked lower to a 3.5-month low of $14.21 per ounce, holding above August’s 6-year low of $14.00.

US Treasury bonds meantime ticked higher in price, pushing 10-year yields down from the week’s earlier 4-month highs above 2.36%.

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK’s leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen’s Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the mining-sector’s World Gold Council research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Source: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-bullion-111220153

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