Shock or Not? Pompeo says ‘No Military Intervention in Iran’, but does he mean It?

US President Donald Trump vs Iran President Hassan Rouhani.

It’s no secret that the Neoconservatives have successfully hijacked the foreign policy of the Trump Administration, and that hawks are keen to trigger America’s next military misadventure which could easily be worse and bloodier than ultimate Middle East debacle to date known as the Iraq War.  With incessant war drums beating constantly between Washington DC and Tel Aviv, many believe that a new war with Iran is effectively a fait accompli.

New information has surfaced which appears to put a slight damper on these fears. According to a recent report in Axios, a closed-door Q & A took place last Monday at the Renaissance Dallas Hotel, between 15 ‘leading’ (aka wealthy) Iranian-American community members and US Secretary of Punitive Sanctions & Regime Change, Mike Pompeo.

When asked point blank about plans for US military intervention in Iran, Pompeo responded by saying that there is “not going to do a military exercise inside Iran.” According to reporter Johnathan Swan, these remarks were verified by three different sources in the room, including the one who took detailed contemporaneous notes and shared them with Swan.

A number questions and issues were brought to Pompeo, including of issue of key Trump cabinet members like John Bolton and Rudy Giuliani supporting the MEK (Mojahedin-e Khalq), or ‘the Iranian opposition in exile’ (US -backed terrorist group), as well as the broader discussion of regime change in Tehran.

By communicating these positions achieves two important functions for a Trump Administration which has been drifting over the war ledge with each passing week – a potentially unpopular stance with Trump’s base which may not bode well for the incumbent going into the upcoming 2020 election cycle. Firstly, it abates fears of the US launching another errant regime change war in the Middle East. Secondly, it distances Trump from the controversial terrorist group, the MEK, a group traditionally backed by the pro-war lobby led by Hillary Clinton, John Bolton and others – a potential stumbling block for Trump in any Iran conversation.

Other key takeaways from this meeting were said to be according to Axios:

• The most provocative question he fielded, according to the sources, was: “If regime change does not occur internally what is the endgame?”
• Pompeo replied, “We’re careful not to use the language of regime change.” He then told the group that the administration would not intervene militarily in Iran.
• Another participant asked, “Has the idea of a coup been considered?” Pompeo joked that “Even if we did, would I be telling you guys about it?” and the room broke out in laughter.

Pompeo used euphemisms and diplo-speak to describe the administration’s position on Iran.

• “Our mission set is to give them the opportunity … capacity to create opportunity, create that and provide transitional support,” he said, per the notes.
• “Our best interest is a non-revolutionary set of leaders leading Iran,” he added, according to the notes.

Between the lines: Pompeo said the Trump administration would have handled the 2009 Green Movement uprising against the regime very differently than the Obama administration did. But he did not say how.

• Pompeo also said there is “no such thing as a moderate inside the Iranian regime anywhere today.”
• And when asked how he could guarantee that the Trump administration’s tough new sanctions wouldn’t hurt the people of Iran, he replied: “There are no guarantees.”

Limited Hangout?

While it would be easy to take this report at face value – and no doubt it will be taken exactly that way by Trump’s base, it should also be noted that this type of story does fit the mould of a classic controlled leak or limited hangout – whereby the administration has set-up this encounter for the express purpose of disseminating this political message indirectly to the public, and via a connected media outlet. Despite any rhetoric to the contrary, the Trump White House is completely on board with Israel’s agenda of aggression in the region, and and will most certainly back it in its endeavors to expand its territory and power in the Middle East. If that’s the case, then this limited hangout will have gone some way to placate restless Trump supports – many of whom feel that hawish President Trump has already betrayed the promises of the non-interventionist candidate Trump – a huge potential liability for this President going into the 2020 Election. Even a few percentage points could make the difference in a close general election, and so Trump will most likely be looking for place to consolidate electoral support along hot-button issue lines. If Trump continues on the current NeoCon path, he would most certainly shed a certain percentage of his core base. A number of alternative candidates are already taking a more non-interventionist position on areas like the Middle East, most notably Democratic Congresswoman, Tulsi Gabbard. Trump hawks could lose big if put to an electoral referendum on this issue.

The stakes could not be higher right now. As Bob Dreyfuss at The Nation pointed out last month:

“Are President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, all severely weakened at home and with few allies abroad, reckless enough to set off a war with Iran? Could military actions designed to be limited—say, a heightening of the Israeli bombing of Iranian forces inside Syria, or possible US cross-border attacks from Iraq, or a clash between American and Iranian naval ships in the Persian Gulf—trigger a wider war? Worryingly, the answers are: Yes and yes.”

Any smart campaign will have read the opinion polls on this issue, as it will surely shape voter preferences going into 202o.

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