The S&P 500 in Week 1 of May 2017

Ninety percent.

After the first week of May 2017, those are the odds according to Goldman Sachs that the U.S. Federal Reserve will next act to hike short term interest rates in the U.S. before the end of 2017-Q2.

And coincidentally, that’s also the relative weighting of the amount of focus that investors are collectively placing on 2017-Q2 in setting today’s stock prices according to our dividend futures-based model of how stock prices work!

Of course, there are two main differences between Goldman Sachs and ourselves. First, we’re not evil and second, we probably spent much, much less time and effort arriving at the same assessment, where a good part of what we do involves simply determining how far forward in time investors are looking ahead, a good part of which involves simply keeping up on the news as it happens!

Speaking of which, here are the headlines that we judged to be at least somewhat significant during Week 1 of May 2017….

Monday, 1 May 2017

• Oil slips 1 percent as rising output faces weak demand worries
• Apple, tech lift Wall Street as Nasdaq sets record

• Wall Street gains buoy stocks in light May Day trading; oil falls

Tuesday, 2 May 2017

• Fed set to leave interest rates unchanged, may hint at June hike
• Wall Street edges up on heavy earnings day; Fed on tap

Wednesday, 3 May 2017

• Fed holds rates steady, calls first-quarter softness ‘transitory’
• U.S. House passes bill to fund government through September
• Wall Street slips as Fed holds on rates; financials rise

• Traders keep bets on June rate hike as Fed downplays weakness

Thursday, 4 May 2017

• Oil falls 5 percent on supply woes; euro up before French vote
• Wall Street ends flat as health bill passes; energy slammed

Friday, 5 May 2017

• Monetary policy ideas from outside the Fed:

• From two would-be Fed leaders, the central bank needs to change

Monetary policy ideas from inside the Fed:

• Fed should not follow rules-based approach: Fischer
• Fed’s Williams pushes new approach to U.S. inflation goal

Fed should start trimming balance sheet in second half: Bullard

• Fed shedding MBS will not hurt Fannie, Freddie – Williams

Goldman raises chances on U.S. rate hike in June to 90 percent

• Hot job gains could pose risks, Fed hikes needed -Williams

S&P 500 hits record on rebound in U.S. job growth, energy shares

The Big Picture’s Barry Ritholtz listed the week’s positive and negative economics news (spoiler: the week had stronger positives than negatives!)