Crude Oil Trades Lower Despite Stable Inventories

Crude Oil Trades Lower Despite Stable Inventories

Crude oil prices are trading under pressure hovering near the $45 per barrel level for West Texas Intermediate. Prices had one of the worst years in memory in 2018, dropping nearly 25% during the year. Prices had one of the largest quarterly declines on record. After rising to $76.90 in October, prices tumbled nearly $34.5 per barrel during the Q4. Over production in the United States as well as a surprise waver on sanction for buyers of Iranian crude put enormous pressure on crude oil prices. You can follow crude oil prices on the Vestle platform.

Production Remains Near Record Highs

The biggest issue for crude oil prices is that production is near record highs in the United States. Despite a cut of 1.2-million barrels a day by OPEC, producers, production by Alberta Canada producers decreased by 345K barrels per day while US production remains robust. Production levels started 2018 at 9.5-million barrels a day and ended 2018 at 11.7-million barrels a day. While there was a week where production dipped slightly by 100K barrels a day, US producers kept activity high. Even with prices more than $34 per barrel below the highs seen in 2018, US producers continue to pump oil at record rates.

Imports to the US Increased

The EIA reports that U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.7 million barrels per day last week, up by 233,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The US Department of Energy reported in the last week of December that US imports dipped slightly. The DOE revealed that during the month of December, crude oil imports averaged about 7.4 million barrels per day, down 2.3% year over year. Both gasoline and distillate imports also dipped during the last month.

Refinery Inputs Stabilize

Refinery inputs have stabilized after rising for most of December. The EIA reported that refinery inputs declined by 58,000 barrels per day week over week and operated at 95.1% of their capacity. Gasoline production decreased last week while distillate fuel production increased last week.

Total Inventories Were Stable

Crude oil inventories where unchanged in the latest week and remain approximately 7% above the 5-year average. This compares to the 5-year average price which is approximately 34% higher than current levels at $59 per barrel. Gasoline inventories in the latest week increased by 3 million barrels and are approximately 4% above the five-year average for this time of year. The EIA revealed that distillate fuel inventories remained unchanged last week and are about 11% below the five-year average for this time of year. The EIA also reported that total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 2.0 million barrels last week.

Demand Remains Elevated

The EIA also reported that demand remains strong. Total demand during the past week averaged 21.3 million barrels per day, up by 3.4% year over year. Gasoline demand averaged 9.1 million barrels per day, which was unchanged year over year. Distillate fuel demand averaged 4.4 million barrels per day during the past month, up by 7.7% year over year. Jet fuel demand was down 10.3% compared with the same four-week period last year.