S&P 500 In The Week When The U.S. Treasury Curve Inverted

The big news for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in the third week of March 2019 was the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve on Friday, 22 March 2019, where for the first time since 2007, the yield of the 10-Year T-note dropped below the level of the 3-Month T-bill.

Historically, that has been an omen for the onset of recessions in the U.S. economy, and may be again, though at this point, it mainly reflects the spread of what has been a significant deterioration in the global economy, particularly in China and, where new developments were concerned on Friday, 22 March 2019, in the Eurozone. Given that timing, the recent decline of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury could perhaps be interpreted as a flight-to-quality, where U.S. treasuries look to be a relative safe haven for international bond investors.

Regardless, that global development represents a negative headwind for the U.S. economy, which sent stock prices notably lower for the week. After having ridden along the upper edge of our redzone forecast range, we find that the level of the S&P 500 has now dropped well back within it.

We’re looking more at the deterioration in the global economy than we are at the U.S. economy as a leading explantion for Friday’s market decline because investors had the opportunity earlier in the week to react to news that the outlook for the U.S. economy would likely be worse than previously expected when the Fed sigificantly lowered its economic forecasts and surprised investors that it would end its quantitative tightening policies by September 2019. Stock market investors had more than ample time to react negatively to that news, and yet, did not change stock prices meaningfully when that news came out on Wednesday, 20 March 2019.

In a world where we’ve routinely documented major stock price movements beginning within a two-to-four minute window of when investors responded to news they weren’t expecting, it was an eternity before Friday’s negative reaction to other news came about – in this case, several hours before the market opened, sending stock prices lower from the outset.

That’s why we pay attention to the market-moving news headlines, which you’ll notice have nothing to do with a man named Mueller!

Monday, 18 March 2019

• Oil closes in on four-month highs on OPEC cuts, U.S. stock draw
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:

• China to speed up construction project approvals in push for growth
• China provides subsidies to lure talent to Greater Bay Area – “Greater Bay Area” being the region in the southern portion Guangdong province, including Hong Kong…

Wall St. advances ahead of Fed policy meeting

Tuesday, 19 March 2019

• Oil holds near 2019 highs ahead of official U.S weekly data
• U.S. factory orders barely rise; shipments fall further
• Wall Street gives up gains on news of troubled trade talks

Wednesday, 20 March 2019

• U.S. mortgage requests hit two-month peak as loan rates fall
• Fed sees no rate hikes in 2019, sets end to asset runoff

• Fed announces plan to end balance sheet runoff in September

Banks stifle Wall Street rally following dovish Fed statement

Thursday, 21 March 2019

• U.S. 30-year, 15-year mortgage rates hit 13-month lows: Freddie Mac
• Bigger China stimulus getting traction? China imports, exports rebound in first half of March: ministry
• Wall Street rises as Apple, tech shares climb

Friday, 22 March 2019

• Oil slips further from 2019 highs on trade worries
• Trump: China trade deal likely; carmakers can avoid tariffs with U.S. plants
• Bigger trouble developing all over (related events):

• German 10-year bond yields crash below zero as growth fears roil markets
• Skittish investors pull more than $20 billion from stocks, rush into bonds: BAML
• U.S. Treasuries signal trouble, stocks fall on global growth worries
• Yield curve inverts for first time since 2007 on global growth worries

Fed rate hike, rate cut both ‘on the table’: Bostic

Wall Street tumbles on global economic slowdown fears

The Big Picture’s Barry Ritholtz picks out six positives and negatives from the week’s other markets and economy news, where the man named Mueller shows up in both categories. We’re at the end of one era and the beginning of another for the kind of useless political noise we’ll need to filter out.