S&P 500 Goes On Volatile Ride With Fed Rate Cut Timing At Stake

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) experienced an interesting level of volatility during the third week of May 2019, as investors shifted how far forward in time they’re looking into the future twice during the week.

We consider an “interesting level of volatility” as being whenever the closing daily value of stock prices changes by more than 2% from the previous trading day’s closing value, for statistical reasons, where the action on Monday, 13 May 2019 definitely qualified as such. As it happens, we were uniquely positioned to analyze the event, where we provided special coverage for it since the change in stock prices was accompanied by a change in investor expectations for the future, which prompted investors to shift how far forward into the future they were looking.

The quick summary of what happened on Monday, 13 May 2019 is that investors shifted their forward-looking focus from the distant future quarter of 2020-Q1 back toward the nearer-term future of 2019-Q4. Because several Federal Reserve officials had been communicating that it would cut interest rates if U.S. economic growth looked like it might suffer from the U.S.-China trade war, China’s weekend announcement that it would launch new retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods sharply increased the probability that the Fed would cut rates in or by 2019-Q4, which prompted investors to shift a portion of their forward-looking focus from 2020-Q1 to 2019-Q4. The rest can be explained simply by the math behind how stock prices work.

Picking up from that point, chart above reveals that investors next shifted their forward-looking attention back toward 2020-Q1, which was prompted by new information related to the strength of the U.S. economy, an easing of trade war-related worries, and a statement by a Fed official that they saw no need to change U.S. interest rates at this time.

By Thursday, 16 May 2019, the flow of news was such that investors had shifted their forward-looking attention back toward 2020-Q1 more fully, where the S&P 500 went on to end the week within the range of values our dividend futures-based model indicates would apply for when investors are largely focused on that future quarter.

That occurred even though investors are still placing better-than-even odds the Fed will cut interest rates well before the end of 2019, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, where the probabilities table indicates investors are pushing out their expectations for the timing of a Fed rate cut to occur later than what they were betting the future would be on Monday, 13 March 2019. Here’s the picture of those probabilities as of the close of trading on Friday, 19 May 2019.

We can reasonably expect interesting levels of volatility in stock prices to continue while investors shift their attention back and forth between these two future periods of time as the timing of the Fed’s next interest rate move is at stake. And though these kinds of dynamics mystify former Treasury secretaries who labor under Keynes’ antiquated animal spirits-based pagan belief system, they’re really all you need to understand why stock prices have been behaving as they have at this time.

Here’s our wrap-up of the major market-moving headlines from the trading week ending on 17 May 2019.

Monday, 13 May 2019

• Oil prices fall with Wall Street on trade war, give back early gains
• U.S.-China trade war heats up:

• Trump warns China not to retaliate against tariff hike
• China hikes tariffs on U.S. goods after Trump warning
• Trump and Xi to meet after defiant China hits U.S. with new tariffs

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China auto sales fall 14.6% on year in April, 10th month of decline
• Graduating students in China to put pressure on job market, says premier

Fed officials see risks in weaker inflation expectations, trade row

• Fed wants to better understand public’s views on inflation, jobs: Rosengren
• Fed’s Rosengren says high tariffs for a long time could disrupt trade patterns
• Fed can lower rates if U.S.-China trade spat causes slowdown: Rosengren

Wall Street hit hard by escalation of tariff war

Tuesday, 14 May 2019

• Oil prices rise over 1% on drone attack on Saudi Aramco facilities
• Trump says U.S.-China trade talks have not collapsed
• Fed’s minions seek to redirect expectations:

• Fed’s George says she sees no case for interest rate cut
• Fed’s Williams says policymakers need to better prepare for lower interest rate world

• Fed’s Williams says tariffs boost U.S. inflation, weigh on growth

Fed’s Daly says goal is inclusive growth that grows jobs in the long run

Stocks bounce back as trade rhetoric cools

Wednesday, 15 May 2019

• Bigger trouble developing in Asia and the Americas:

• China’s retail sales growth slumps to 16-year low as trade war risks rise
• U.S. factory output drops for third time in four months
• Profits fall at Japan’s top three banks as economy slows

Potential sign Europe has hit bottom: ‘First ray of hope’ as German economy returns to growth

U.S. business inventories unchanged; sales surge

Fed’s Barkin sees no strong case for a rate hike or cut

• Fed’s Barkin watching effect of U.S.-China trade dispute on business confidence

Wall St. ends higher as trade worries ease

• Trump calls trade war with China ‘little squabble,’ says talks ongoing
• Mnuchin says China trade talks likely to continue in Beijing
• Trump plans to delay tariffs on auto imports: Bloomberg

Thursday, 16 May 2019

• With inflation elusive, two Fed policymakers lay out a welcome mat

• Fed should wait for faster wage growth before raising rates: Kashkari
• Fed may not be able to engineer higher inflation: Kashkari
• Fed needs to let inflation rise above 2%, Kashkari says
• Fed’s Brainard: Breakdown in inflation-unemployment relationship poses challenge
• U.S. fed funds rate posts first rise in three weeks

Wall St. rises for third straight day on data, earnings

Friday, 17 May 2019

• Oil slips but ends week higher on Mideast supply disruption fears
• Fed’s minions launch test balloon, seek to set expectations:

• Fed’s Lieber urges switch away from Libor, says it is raising systemic risks
• Fed’s Harker in no rush on rates, worried about low inflation expectations

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China’s slowing economy: the view from the Henan heartland
• In China’s heartland, once-flush shoppers turn cautious
• Lack of innovation is ‘Achilles heel’ for China’s economy, Xi says
• Senior China official says trade war with U.S. could cut growth by 1% point: SCMP

Bigger stimulus developing in China:

• China says economic impact of U.S. trade tensions ‘controllable’
• China central bank to cut funding costs amid U.S. trade row
• China plans to cut jet fuel prices to aid airlines, consumers

Wall St. falls as trade anxieties spike

• China’s tough rhetoric leaves trade talks with U.S. in limbo

There were more U.S. markets and economy news than that during the week that was, which Barry Ritholtz categorized into seven positives and seven negatives.