We can no more trust the EU during the Brexit negotiations than the American alternative State afterwards.

Blood, toil, tears and sweat = reality

I love it when you go to bed, and the weather forecast says “Temp now 9° (when it’s 12) tomorrow less cloud 23°”, then you get up next morning, and the forecast says “Sunny now (when it’s overcast) rain later 16°”. It restores my faith in the opinion that experts are often wrong. You know, the people Labour Remainers say are never wrong, unless they’re pollsters – who are totally wrong, and now that student voter registrations are up you just wait and see, the Tories are falling apart – Jeremy’s time has come.

In a way, denial of reality is encouraging, when what it’s trying to fight against is overt media bias….which, of course, we have in the UK Fakelection. You can also see this in the BBC’s coverage of the Soroseunato French election, in that there is obviously more genuine fervour at the Le Pen rallies – so yesterday, they ran a live piece from Albi that talked of “tremendous atmosphere here” at the Macron rally. But both the Beeb and the Marines are deluded, because Macron is very obviously going to win, as is Thearse May.

But most of this stuff is disturbing. There was plenty of noisy enthusiasm at Nazi rallies  too, and Corbyn is so crystal clearly doomed to come second (at best) Labour activists are just playing Let’s Pretend. It’s what they do when reality is at odds with their ideology: just as neocons insist that wealth trickles down, the UK Left insists that the EU is a benign organisation.

It’s all about the same old chestnuts, really: the naifs among us hang on every word the crooks say, and never learn from history. The thing to do in every case is watch how the crooks behave, and then look for sound parallels as to what happened next in history. “History doesn’t repeat,” said Mark Twain, “but it does rhyme”.

The behaviour plus history thing has been recorded to the last millimetre of sharp focus this week by the behaviour of the Junckernauts over Brexit. The UK Prime Minister invites them to a strictly private dinner to smooth ruffled feathers: Drunker behaves like Ed Balls on steroids, and then leaks what happened to the media. At first, May remains composed, writing it off as “gossip”. But then Merkel chucks her normal flying brick of threats – “be under no illusions” – Tusk comes up with a baseless €100bn exit fee, and Macron gloats about the fee on live TV. So the PM gives a presser to say mind your manners and stop trying to influence the election. An objective person would call this brinkmanship in diplomacy from a group of leaders with form.

And the EU/EC/ECB axis of delusional depravity – especially – does have form: first against the bondholders in Greece, then against Cypriot banking, then against Hungary and Poland, then against the Greek population. So it would’ve been nice if, the following day, the UK media had pointed out two realities: we’re the ones with the trade deficit here guys, and these EUnatics are obviously not very nice people.

But no, the Left and Remainer media called May’s speech “outrageous”, “disgraceful” and “extraordinary”. As always with the Left and the European Bunion, it was a classic case of bad behaviour turning opinion sour, so they retaliated with bollocks: all the usual suspects could be rounded up and seen doing precisely the same thing.

However, it looks like (as Bob Dylan might have sung in his acid-pumping period) “It’s a Claude Rains gonna fall” for those suspects*. Labour is going to lose in June, Macron is going to win on Sunday, and then – German election or not – the markets ought once more start to focus on the blunt realities of the EU: Draghi’s stimulus has failed, Italy is a basket case, Brexit in some form will happen, and the UK cannot be bullied à la Greece, because we’re not in the Euro…which remains a dysfunctional currency with no future.

Ergo, the euro will plummet at some point, and ezone bond yields will sky-rocket. Won’t they?

No, I fear that may not happen. Away from all the hype and wishful unthinking syndrome, we need to focus on just how much is at stake here. If and when the euro suddenly does a Wily Coyote, Italy sinks into insolvency and the German economy goes sideways after Brexit, there is no way NATO and the US State Department will just sit on the sidelines and say “Aw shucks, still, time to move on….”. The entire geopolitical – arms, oil, fiscal and economic – picture in the US depends on one, solid EU to sell to, a fully-funded NATO, enemies to big up and access to oil. Lose in Syria and it’s bad. Lose the EU as a receptive trading and defence partner, and it’s a disaster – in the eyes of the Alternative US State.

Given that context, we need to look closely at Trump’s disastrous start. Either he was an industrial-scale liar, or he’s a dupe, or he’s under some kind of informal House Arrest. I think it’s a combo of the first and last of those likelihoods. I am becoming increasingly convinced that, Congress aside, President Trump is being fed duff information from a number of sources – primarily H.R. Macmasters, the hawk straight from Central Casting. But equally, somebody or some organisation has a hold on the man. And finally, Trump is a businessman/power creep: he’s well aware of the fact that one huge globalised EU market is worth far more, on paper, than lil ol’ Britain. Just watch that Special Relationship wave bye-byes.

Trump’s election delivered real hope to the Brexit camp, and few people grasped this as quickly as Nigel Farage. But now, the chances are that, having jumped from the back of the queue to the front, we’ll get demoted back to halfway down the line. Personally I don’t give a toss, because I don’t think either (a) that the reason for Brexit is money alone or (b) the US is where we should be looking to expand trade. But it won’t end there.

We saw what George Soros alone did to Sterling a few decades ago. We saw how the US got Iran to the negotiating table. We saw how the Socialist Hollande turned into a neocon after his Debt Bonds were bombed by Wall Street. There’s not much that Draghi can do to us outside the eurozone: but there’s plenty the Globalist anti-nationality nutters can try on in the US and among the Blairites.

This is why, after Brexit, Britain will need a root-and-branch ‘Reformation’ of its foreign policy. I have this shot on the Slog Home page for a reason: