WINTER STORM WARNINGS?

Looking out across the landscape of the current market, one has to wonder just how long the illusion of “safe sailing” can be maintained. Daily there seems to be increasing evidence that the war for CONfidence is being lost. The market continues to “melt-up” and the usual response of past markets with sentiment rising is to see a correlation of increasing participation of the dumb money as the smart money unloads their position for a wash rinse repeat cycle. Is this time different or will the “dumb money” step into the trap? Without increased participation the ability to move out of these overvalued positions becomes less and less as the price moves higher. Dangling the bait of “recovery” and “growth” leaves the game a double edged sword that continues to grow sharper and sharper with each passing day. The rubber meets the road as more and more evidence that the “recovery” is rolling over as massaged statistics become increasingly “stretched”. Let’s not kid ourselves, we’re in a mess and its going to need at the very least a major reset just to give the current strategy a chance at being successful. It has to have some steam let out of it and like they did in 87 a little brief shock may just do it. We may not be there quite yet, but on the other hand a “market event” seems to be gaining some steam here. It would provide the cover for further printing and after all…..what else is there for the central planners? Be cautious. Keep your focus on what’s important and use common sense as usual. I apologize for the random posts but honestly there just isn’t anything factual to really give me any encouragement. Non farm payroll tomorrow and if you get a chance to watch CNBS in the morning watch how disgusting they play the numbers game with it.  gl