weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2367. On Monday the SPX rose to 2372, pulled back to 2359 on Tuesday, then gapped up on Wednesday hitting an all-time high of SPX 2401. Thursday and Friday saw the SPX pullback to 2375 before ending the week at 2383. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Economic reports for the week were mostly higher. On the downtick: pending home sales, construction spending, the WLEI and the Q1 GDP estimate. On the uptick: durable goods, consumer confidence, the Chicago PMI, personal income/spending, ISM manufacturing/services, the PCE, plus weekly jobless claims hit a 44-year low. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by monthly payrolls, factory orders and export/import prices. Best to your weekend and week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

Last weekend we noted the weekly RSI was getting into rare overbought territory. It had ended the week at 89.94 and was reaching the typical 90+ overbought reading that comes in third of third waves. This week it ended at 91.63, the highest overbought level since early 2004. Not the last bull market, the previous one. The peak reading of the 2009-2015 bull market occurred in 2010. The peak reading of the 2002-2007 bull market occurred in 2004. Upside momentum is certainly in favor of a continuing bull market.