Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open marginal new high, DOW +85

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: -1.0% v 5.2%. The market opened 5 points above Friday’s SPX 2391 close and continued to rally. At 10am the NAHB was reported higher: 70 v 68. Then just past 11am the SPX hit 2404. After a small pullback to SPX 2399 by 2:30 the market closed at 2402.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds slipped 2 ticks, Crude rose $1.10, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts and building permits at 8:30, then industrial production at 9:15.

The market opened higher today and hit a marginal new all-time high. We can now count five waves up from the SPX 2329 low in mid-April. When this five wave rally is combined with the NAZ/NDX count provided over the weekend, the B-wave Minor 4 scenario is eliminated. This SPX uptrend is Minor wave 5. While the five waves up could be all of Minor 5, it is unlikely. The NDX/NAZ still appear to have a pullback and then another rally ahead before they can complete their uptrend. This suggests the SPX five wave rally is either Minute i of Minor 5, or a i-ii, 1-2-3 underway. The next few days should provide the answer. Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Short term momentum ended the below overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Filed under: Updates