Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2432. After a decline to SPX 2420 on Monday the market rallied to 2444 by Wednesday. The market dropped to SPX 2419 on Thursday, then rallied to 2433 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.3%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.0%. Economic reports continue to be weak. On the downtick: retail sales, the CPI, business inventories, import prices, the Philly FED, capacity utilization, the NAHB, housing starts, building permits, consumer sentiment, the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, and the budget deficit widened. On the uptick: the NY FED and jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by leading indicators and more housing.

LONG TERM: uptrend

The long-term wave count we have been tracking had remained unchanged for about a year. There will probably be some minor adjustments as time goes on: project-monitor-adjust. Overall, however, we do expect this to continue to least 2018 and possibly 2020. The longer-term pattern appears more and more probable into the foreseeable future. More on this in a soon to be released special report.