Thursday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then sharp pullback, DOW +86

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 jobless claims were reported higher, and durable goods orders were reported higher too. The market opened at an all-time high of SPX 2484, then immediately began to pullback. The pullback bottomed at SPX 2479 around 10:30 and the market started to drift up again. The Transports, however, had gapped down at the open and were down about 2%, while all four major indices remained positive. Around 12:30 the Transports broke even lower and the NDX/NAZ started to selloff. The SPX/DOW followed, and the SPX hit 2460 by 1:30. Then the market rebounded for the rest of the day to close at SPX 2475.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.35%. Bonds dropped 8 ticks, Crude rose 35 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +2.8%) at 8:30, then consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened at a new high today, failed to clear the OEW 2479 pivot range, then got caught up in the selling of the Transports. By the end of the day, despite the Transports not rebounding much, the SPX lost only 3 points after being down as much as 18 points. Today’s decline did trigger a quantified wave on both short term counts. But unfortunately the waves are still inconclusive at this time. The very short-term count now has five waves up then a decline to 2460, while the short-term count has three waves up and possibly a 4th to 2460. In other words this uptrend can still go either way: B wave or Minute iii wave. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral after getting quite oversold at the lows. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Filed under: Updates