Sir, Wolfgang Münchau writes,“The main instrument of coercion in the eurozone is not its fiscal rules, but the power of the European Central Bank to withdraw funding from national banks. This is not a discretionary power, but one that is automatically triggered once a country‘s sovereign debt loses investment grade status. If the banks have large holdings of their home countries’ debt, as is the case in Italy, they are setting themselves up for failure if their governments run an unsound fiscal policy” “
Italy is setting itself up for a monumental fiscal failure” October 29.
“Triggered once a country‘s sovereign debt loses investment grade status”? Should in the first place Italy have gotten the super-duper investment grade status assigned to it by EU authorities? By mean of “sovereign debt preferences” they assigned it a 0% risk, which allow banks to hold Italian public debt against zero capital? Italy’s like Greece’s like many other and perhaps all other sovereign, the main problem is not losing that status but having been awarded it.
And even if your risk weight would be based on the nation being able in nominal terms to pay 100% of its debt using the printer the hard truth for Italy, and all other eurozone countries is that though Eurozone investors holding sovereign debt denominated in euros have the right to consider holding assets in their domestic currency the eurozone sovereigns who owe such debt do not have the right to consider they owe it in their domestic currency.
In a 2002 Op-ed titled “
The Riskiness of Country Risk” I wrote, “If the risk of a given country is underestimated it will most assuredly be leveraged to the hilt. The result will be a serious wave of adjustments sometime down the line.” That, which hit Greece, now awaits Italy, courtesy of EU.
Münchau ends with “The eurozone’s dysfunctionality has many origins. It would be unfair to blame it all on Italy. The rise in Italian spreads is evidence that the eurozone crisis never ended. It just fell dormant for a while.”
That is entirely correct, the saddest part though is that the challenges posed by the euro were known,
from the get-go.
Sir, as I’ve told you many times before, it is truly mind-boggling how in all the overheated Brexit/Remain discussions that divide Britain, so little attention has been given to the EUs own very delicate conditions.
@PerKurowski
Source:
http://teawithft.blogspot.com/2018/10/eu-authorities-assigning-italy-like.html
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