ES Morning Update November 16th 2018

Finally… the bulls stepped up to the plate and rallied up to a nice green close yesterday. But can they do again today is the question? If you are a bear sitting on the sidelines you welcomed that rally but in order to get another large drop I do believe we need a second rally day (today) to lure in enough bulls and shake out enough bears so that the odds will be greatly increased for a nasty down day on Monday.

Yeah, seasonality-wise next week is bullish as it’s Thanksgiving week, but the chart tell me otherwise if today closes up nicely. What I’m looking for here is for the bulls to exhaust themselves by rallying strong two days in row, versus hard the first day, rest the second, and rally the third, etc… In other words, the bears best chance is for the bulls to keep on running today without resting.

Now that may or may not happen as clearly the futures are down this morning and they have not pushed through the falling light purple trendline of resistance, which I’d hoped they would have done afterhours yesterday or premarket this morning. Above it is an orange falling trendline, which would be the ideal target to hit going into the close today. It appears to be right around the high from yesterday in the 2730 area. If the bulls can hit it and close up there (or higher would be fine too) that would likely be a green close, which would show exhaustion and lead me to believe we’ll drop hard on Monday… fooling the masses expecting a holiday rally.

But if we close red then odds will flip back to the normal bullish holiday pattern, which would be a light volume melt up next week. Therefore I’ll only be rooting for the green close today as I hate that light volume crap that puts me to sleep in boredom. P.S. While it doesn’t usually happen on Holiday’s if we get that green close today to setup Monday for a big down day it could continue right into Wednesday and hit that prior low of 2600 SPX… might even take it out? Look at how they dropped the market this past Veterans Day, so holiday’s aren’t something forbidden currently like they have been in the past. I’ve got my crash helmet ready just in case. Have a great weekend.