ES Morning Update June 13th 2019

Yesterday was certainly a boring day as the market just chopped sideways all day long. Last night afterhours though there was a fast drop in the futures around 10pm EST of about 10 points or so, but now this morning it’s completely reversed and is up about 10 points or so. Kinda makes me think the market found a bottom and is now trying to start that “possible” wave 5 up.

It’s still not what I’d call a strong move but it is a move up at least. There’s really no set amount or percentage for a wave 5 as they can extend and subdivide or just be one short wave. Many will even truncate short of the 3rd wave high, so the bulls really need to put the pedal to the floor here or else the bears are going to take control again very soon.

The weekly chart looks very bearish to me last weeks’ strong up move that made a long solid green candle that engulfed almost all of the prior 3 weeks needs follow through or else it will all have been for nothing. This weeks candle is currently looking like a doji candle with a small move down and small move up in the body, which are sometimes called “spinning tops” as well. Tomorrow is the last day for this candle and I suggest the bulls close it green, as it’s currently red. That’s not hard as it’s just a few points higher.

They just need to close over 2893.25 tomorrow, but still, it’s not a bullish sign. In fact it suggests a down move is coming next week if history repeats, and it at least rhymes an awful lot of the times. This week is looking similar to the week of 2/19/2019, whereas the prior week dropped about 80% of prior weeks’ big green candle up rally. Meaning if the pattern follows here we should go down to the 2770-2790 zone to make a higher low then the 2728.75 low the week of 6/3/19.

Again, patterns never repeat exactly but when I look at the weekly chart I just don’t see much upside left for the bulls here. This wave 5 up looks tired already and the market isn’t even open yet. Can it take out the high of the wave 3 at least? I just don’t know? But the bulls need to get going soon or another drop is going to follow next week. But a strong thrust up into the close on Friday could negate the repeat of the pattern as they would no longer look similar. Happy Trading Today.