Report points to ‘difficult and worrying’ 2019 for U.S. agriculture

Market volatility caused by President Donald Trump’s trade disputes, extreme weather and the potential spread of African Swine Fever could threaten the stability of global food commodity prices next year.

By Sarah Zimmerman
Politico
11/15/2018

Excerpt:

“These measures,” the report said, referring to tit-for-tat tariffs, “change the structure of global trade and increase U.S. inventories to new all-time highs, while hurting U.S. farmer margins, and resulting in great uncertainty when it comes to prices and the upcoming 2019 planting season.”

Agricultural producers should prepare for other factors beyond trade, according to the report. If African Swine Fever, which has cropped up in places in China’s massive pork industry, spreads to become a full-on outbreak, consumer concern could lead to shifts in preferences, in turn affecting global trade flows.

In addition, the report noted that climate experts are forecasting an 80 percent chance of El Niño weather conditions being formally declared “by the end of the northern winter.” El Niño-related weather patterns tend to make the U.S. Southern Plains wetter and can also lead to drier conditions in the northern part of the U.S. Midwest.

Read the complete article here.

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