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“Market Insight: American Pensions’ $910 Billion Problem”
By Joe Withrow, Head of Research, Bonner & Partners
“U.S. public pensions have been drowning in red ink for a decade now… That’s the story of today’s chart, which maps the gap between public pension liabilities and assets going back to 2002.
As you can see, U.S. public pensions have run roughly a $1 trillion deficit for 10 years now. You see, public pensions invest in conservative assets like government securities, investment-grade bonds, and blue-chip stocks. These assets are not usually volatile… except when financial markets meltdown, as they did in 2008.
As you can see from the chart, public pensions took a $600 billion hit as the financial crisis played out. But liabilities kept going up. By the end of last year, public pensions had accrued $3.8 trillion in liabilities… Compared to only $2.9 trillion in assets. That means public pensions are on the hook for $910 billion that they don’t have.
What’s more, the looming bear market we have been warning about will make the situation much worse. After all, if public pensions could not “catch up” during one of the longest bull markets on record… When will they? That means there are only three potential outcomes to close the pension gap: higher taxes… reduced pensions… or federal government bailouts (money-printing). Or perhaps a combination of the three…”