El Niño latest: not much going on

Credit: NASA climatekids

The necessary ocean-atmosphere coupling needed for El Niño to develop has not been observed so far, despite earlier favourable predictions.

ENSO-neutral conditions are present, says NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center [pdf].

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of
the Pacific Ocean.

The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific.

El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere
winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (°C)

From September 2017 to late March 2018, below-average SSTs persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

Since early June, near-to-above average SSTs have been present across most of the Pacific Ocean.

Since mid December, positive SST anomalies have weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific.

Full report here [pdf].