Week 3 Prediction Article: Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Good morning, Bronco fans.  Its a very wet week 3 here in Baltimore.  The rain is coming down and doesn’t appear to be letting up anytime today, so this is going to be a soggy game for sure.  The elements are going to play a major factor on today’s game and should slow down the pace of play.  I expect a lot of ground attack by both teams and that should favor our Broncos.

The Baltimore Ravens (1-1) return home after a road loss in Cincinnati last week.  The Ravens have been the tail of two identities.  In week 1, they dismantled the dysfunctional Bills at home and then got trounced on early by the Bengals and were never able to recover.  C.J. Mosely will be a game time decision and that will be a huge factor in the middle of the Ravens defense if Mosely is unable to go.  Baltimore faced issues with defensive communication last week after Mosely went out, but I would expect Safety Eric Weddle to lead the defensive charge for the Ravens.

I believe that the elements are going to change the Baltimore game plan drastically, and I think that plays into the Broncos favor.  The Ravens have not been able to establish the running game, and it won’t be easy getting them going today against a very stout front 7 by Denver, especially with the rain.  Von Miller should have a huge game getting after Joe Flacco today.  Last week, Denver saw a very good, efficient, and quick release quarterback in Derek Carr.  Flacco doesn’t have that type of release and is typically a check down or home run type of quarterback.  I expect the tight ends to get involved early, so the linebackers and safeties will need to be ready to go.

The Denver Broncos (2-0) come into week 3 with two back to back 4th quarter comebacks against  Seattle and Oakland.  Last week, Derek Carr shredded the Broncos secondary, but the Broncos wouldn’t break.  The Denver defense allow Derek Carr to complete 90% of his passes for 288 yards, but only allowed one passing touchdown.  They held their own on the rushing defense as well only allowing 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground last week.  The Broncos cannot afford to start slow on the road and expect to be able to claw their way back into the game.  This Ravens defense will not allow a comeback in the same fashion that the Raiders did last week.  Start fast and don’t commit any turnovers.

Week 3 Statistical Breakdown

Denver Offense vs. Baltimore Defense

Denver’s Total Offense (YPG) 4th in the NFL – 427.5 Yards Per Game
Baltimore’s Total Defense (YPG) 2nd in the NFL – 263 Yards Per Game

Denver’s Passing Offense (YPG) 13th in the NFL – 270.5 Yards Per Game
Baltimore’s Passing Defense (YPG) 3rd in the NFL – 167.5 Yards Per Game

Denver’s Rushing Offense – 2nd in the NFL – 157 Yards Per Game
Baltimore’s Rushing Defense – 14th in the NFL – 95.5 Yards Per Game

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Baltimore Offense vs. Denver Defense

Baltimore’s Total Offense (YPG) – 8th in the NFL – 397 Yards Per Game
Denver’s Total Defense (YPG) – 16th in the NFL – 339.5 Yards Per Game

Baltimore’s Passing Offense (YPG) – 7th in the NFL – 305.5 Yards Per Game
Denver’s Passing Defense (YPG) – 13th in the NFL – 270.5 Yards Per Game

Baltimore’s Rushing Offense (YPG) – 23rd in the NFL – 91.5 Yards Per Game
Denver’s Rushing Defense (YPG) – 6th in the NFL – 78 Yards Per Game

****Something’s gotta give!

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5 Keys to Victory

1. Run the ball.  Establish the run with the two rookies and don’t look back.  The Broncos have averaged 157 yards per game on the ground and the Ravens allow 95.5 yards per game.  Crack the 100 yard mark on the ground, and Denver wins.
2. Get pressure on Joe Flacco.  This isn’t the same type of offense or quarterback that Denver saw last week.  His release is nowhere near as fast as Carr’s and his offense line is suspect.  Chubb and Miller need to be make Flacco’s worst nightmare come true.
3. Win the turnover battle.  I know it is cliche, but Denver must win in turnover ratio.  If we can force Joe to make untimely throws, we will make him pay.  Watch Safety Justin Simmons today.  He is going to have a big game.
4. Protect the ball Case.  Keenum has 4 interceptions through the first 2 games, so he needs to protect the football.  I want to see Case have a clean game.  Don’t throw any picks, don’t lose on the road.  Simple.
5. Hold the Ravens on 3rd down.  Denver is by far the best 3rd down defense in the NFL.  Let’s keep that going, and get our defense off of the field.  Control the clock and control field position.

Final Score Prediction

Baltimore Ravens – 17

Denver Broncos -20

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