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Hezbollah In Syria

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 Hezbollah In Syria

The US, via the CIA, had assisted in the introduction of al Qaeda and radical Sunni jihadists into the Syria uprising.  These forces, it has been discovered, have carried out atrocities that the Western media had been too quick to attribute to Assad.  International organizations have since verified that many of the atrocities and massacres against civilians were the work of forces being supported by the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.

 Now the people have tuned against the foreign fighters after realizing they care little if all of Syria is destroyed in a proxy war that would cost the US trillions of dollars and would leave their Syria destroyed and contaminated with cancer-causing and birth defect-causing depleted uranium.  The domestic opposition forces are now much more willing to accept a negotiated settlement and seek to end the quagmire that has been created, but it seems events have gotten out of their control.

The problem is that the domestic opposition does do not control the foreign fighters who are now looking to put the US on a crash course with Iran, and hence with Russia and China.  As a proxy war with Iran advances both Israel and Saudi interests, more and more America defense establishment people have come to realize and draft reports stating war with Iran would be many times more disastrous than the war with Iraq and could lead to confrontations between the world’s major power. 

 Iraq has had a foreign policy that has become increasingly influenced by growing ties with Iran.  The Iraqi government has stated unequivocally to the US it will not allow its country to be used as a base of operations for any attack against Iran.  Even after the Iraq war, the Iraqi government left intact all oil contracts that had been instituted under Saddam and having close ties with Iran , leaving the US without any significant post-war economic or strategic military benefits.

As the Iraq War has given Iran a cushion to the US instead of giving the US a pliant Iraqi ally against Iran, the US has outraged the Saudis who now expect the US to support Sunni intervention into a Syria that is controlled by Alawites and to a lesser extent Shiites.  One of the main reasons the Shiites hold so much influence in Syria is that Hezbollah has shown it can stop the IDF in its tracks.  Additionally, it leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has earned the support of Lebanese Sunnis by being such an effective defensive fighting force and inclusive leader.   In fact, Iran has had discussions with the Hezbollah leader regarding active intervention in defense of Syria.  This places the US at a loss due to Hezbollah being a non-state actor for which Iran can make a plausible claim of deniability in much the same way the US is denying responsibility for the actions of Sunni fighters.  The problem for the US is that Hezbollah is a much more disciplined fighting force and would embarrass the Syrian opposition, the Saudi regime and the US if Hezbollah were to prove effective.  More importantly, it would cause a rise in the stock of both Iran and Hezbollah.

With the US intelligence establishment having completely and publicly dressed down Turkey’s Erdogan, the US has made it known it will not be drug into a direct shooting war in Syria regardless of the political consequences and embarrassment suffered by Erdogan.  Both domestic and international media are now citing foreign diplomatic sources that support Damascus’s version of events: that the Turkish F4 Phantom was in Syrian airspace when shot down.  This Sunday Erdogan launched a blistering attack onThe Wall Street Journal, which has quoted U.S. intelligence sources as contradicting Ankara’s version of events. 

 Erdogan has acted irresponsibly by sending a jet fighter to perform a reconnaissance of Syrian air defenses that cost the lives of two Turkish pilots.  This is especially true given that Turkey is funding, arming and providing a base of operations for foreign fighters transiting into Syria.  While Erdogan cried wolf, NATO held a meeting in which it was decided that the attack did not allow Turkey to invoke protection and retaliation by NATO.  Now Erdogan is provocatively massing armor on the Syrian border.  Given Hezbollah’s adeptness of fighting armor forces, the embarrassment of a Turkish  defeat would spell disaster if Iran is correct concerning Hezbollah’s support of Assad and their deployment in Syria.. 

If the US does nothing, you can bet Iran will become a much more difficult negotiator with the US and the EU regarding its nuclear program.  This would anger the Israelis and would lead to them throwing their support behind Romney for the 2012 presidential election and working harder to manufacture an incident or aggravate the situation to ignite a wider conflict.  It  would also expose just how controlled the US political establishment is by Israeli Zionists.

And, if the US does attack Syria or the Syrian government falls due to outside intervention, Russia has stated it will go forward with its sale of SS300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran thereby making any Israeli attack on Iran an expensive and risky proposition.  Given the downing of IR Flight 655 and the obliteration of 290 Iranians, Iran would be only too eager to volley fire some SS22 Sunburn missiles to sink a US carrier and take out a couple of wings of US or Israeli fighters. 

The easiest target for Iran would be international oil shipping.  They need only sink one to force insurance carriers to suspend coverage and achieve the exact same result Syria had faced when coverage was withdrawn on a ship carrying military helicopters for deliver to Assad.  Once oil went up to $8 per gallon in the US and even more overseas, the collapse of the world economies would soon follow.  This is especially true if Iran targets Saudi oil production and carries out its threat of a very developed assymetrical war attacking Us interests across the globe and funding terrorism world-wide.  Such a situation would call into question the decade-long “Global War on Terror” and and credibility to those who demand the US have a less interventionist foreign policy. 

 But, given the US is now funding al Qaeda and Sunni jihadists in Syria that attacked the US on 9/11, and because the US attacked Iraq instead of Saudi Arabia which had funded the attackers came, the War on Terror has already been proven to be a farce.



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