Severe Thunderstorm Watch

NationalWeatherForce.com has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for TX/OK Panhandle … Extreme Southeast CO … Western half of KS … Northwest OK … effective now through some of tonight …

Issued:  4/16/15 at 11:30am CT

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A very strong storm in the Rocky Mountains is bringing in strong upper divergence across a wide area of the Western Plains this afternoon/evening and into the night … This lifting profile will work with a dryline/warm front boundary to produce severe thunderstorms across the area, which looks like an outbreak of severe weather from what I am seeing.  The Tornado Intensity Model shows the right ingredients for tornadoes in the Northeast TX Panhandle to Eastern Oklahoma Panhandle zones,  but when adding another ingredient it just misses it or the window is small, around an hour or so this evening in those areas.

Regardless, storms will be moving north to northeast through the watch area through this afternoon, evening, and into some of tonight.  Large hail/damaging winds will be the primary risk with these storms … isolated tornado potential will exist in some of the storms in the OK/TX portion of the watch …

Strong tornado potential was showing up on the tornado intensity model for SW KS but the boundary layer cooling during the evening knocked it out … so the area still needs to be monitored.