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Syria Update: What Will Putin Do?

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Putin Plays Syria Cards Close to Chest Ahead of UN Vote

Putin Plays Syria Cards Close to Chest Ahead of UN Vote | World | RIA Novosti

“But Putin has fallen into a trap over Syria. He tried to use the Syria card in Russia’s disagreement over the NATO anti-missile shield in Europe and on Western support for the anti-Putin opposition,” Shumilin added. “But nothing worked out for him and he is now trying to distance himself from Assad, but still keep face. Russia has become too closely linked to Assad and is now bearing responsibility for his crimes.”

Assad’s kinsman Shawqat and defense minister Rajiha killed by suicide bomber

DEBKAfile Special Report July 18, 2012, 2:31 PM (GMT+02:00)

Assad’s kinsman Shawqat and defense minister Rajiha killed by suicide bomber

This was the deadliest blow to the Assad regime in the 17-month Syrian uprising, striking deep inside the president’s inner circle and family: Shawqat was married to his sister.  It took place on the fourth day of fierce fights with rebel forces which seized parts of Damascus and are battling superior government forces backed by heavy tank, artillery and machine gun fire and helicopters.

Commentary & Analysis


L. A. Marzulli

It would appear that we are seeing the end of what the Red Cross has announced is an all out Syrian civil war, for Assad is loosing ground and loosing it fast.  The suicide blast that killed the Defense Minister – see link above –  is a blow to the regime and Assad has done little in the way of retaliation, so far.  Assad may be down to his last move, which as I see it, is to deploy chemical weapons against Israel, in hope of diverting attention away from himself and rally Moslems around the common enemy, Israel.  That scenario most likely would result in the total destruction of Damascus as the Israeli’s have announced, if chemical weapons are used against them they will annihilate Syria. However the wild card is Putin.  So far he has not come to the air of Assad, as he’s on the sidelines, letting events play themselves out.  It’s hard to predict at this point what the outcome will be.  In my opinion, Assad is now cornered completely and unless he does something drastic he will lose the reigns of power.  In the eyes of the world he most likely has reached pariah status, so he has nothing to lose.  I’m sure images of Saddam Hussein swinging from a rope and Moamar Gaddafi being gang raped by men, give Assad nightmares.

Another wild card is Iran.  Will the Islamic Republic come to Assad’s aid or will they do nothing?  Khamanei, the supreme leader of Iran, announced recently that Iranians should prepare for the last days.  If the Iranians move to aid Assad will the Russians join the fray as well?

In my opinion the major player here is Putin, as I believe he literally holds Assad’s fate in his hands.  We’re down to what may be the final act of this drama that has played out for months and resulted in thousands of Syrian civilians killed.

With that in mind, Israel has voiced its concern over what government will replace Assad if he is deposed.  Most likely the Moslem Brotherhood will attempt to take power as they did in Egypt.  If that is the case then Israel would be hemmed in on its West and Northern borders by hostile countries.

In closing today’s short post:  The situation in Syria has reached a crises point, an endgame is unfolding and at this point anything can happen.  Assad has two choices, flee the country or use his chemical weapons.  Without the aid  of Putin he has little choice.


Al-Houla Massacre – Dozens of Children Murdered in Syria – YouTube

Be still and know that I Am God.  Behold the days are coming when I will show my strength on the mountains of Israel.


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    • UmanMike

      WTF is this piece of propaganda-BS? Putin is a strong and righteous man. The so-called “rebels” are really CIA-trained “AlQuaeda” or “AlCIAda”-mercenaries committing more and more atrocities in the mid-east. The terror-state “IsraHell” is looking for any chance it gets to continue it´s genocide in the neighboring countries … WAKE-UP already!

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