Voters Favor Candidates Who Promise to Be a Check on Trump

Bill Clinton famously campaigned under the mantra of: “It’s the economy, stupid,” assuming  voters will choose the candidate who promises to create jobs and economic growth. Under this assumption, Trump-allied 2018 midterm candidates should be shoo-ins.

According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll however, while six in ten Americans are currently satisfied with the economy, and a plurality credit Trump with their optimism, most voters surveyed prefer candidates who promise to be a check on the president. Voters may credit Trump with an improving economy, but it’s not enough for them to support Trump allies in the midterms.

In fact, according to NBC News, they say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who disagrees with the president on most issues by “a whopping 25-point margin.”

As NBC News reports:

[And] 48 percent of voters indicate they’re more likely to support a congressional candidate who promises to provide a check on President Trump, compared with 23 percent who say they’re less likely to support such a candidate.

By contrast, a majority — 53 percent — say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the president on most issues.

The poll also shows Democrats with a ten-point advantage over Republicans in the upcoming congressional elections. Half the voters surveyed preferred a majority Democratic Congress, with 40 percent preferring a Republican one. It’s a plurality rather than a majority, meaning more poll respondents preferred Democrats than Republicans, but neither had a majority of responses, as ten percent of respondents were not sure which party they preferred.

Democrats now have a ten-point advantage on this question. In April, the last time this poll was conducted, it was a seven-point advantage.

Trump’s approval rating has also climbed up to 44 percent, but as Greg Sargent observes in his analysis of the poll in The Washington Post, “That is not far off the approval suffered by other presidents who were hit by wave elections.” He cautions that the generic ballot has tightened, and says, “There could be a wave and Dems could still fall short, due to structural disadvantages and the Democrats’ 23-seat deficit.”

While November is still months away, some Democratic pollsters remain optimistic. Fred Yang, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff told NBC, “I think this is becoming a traditional midterm where the party controlling the White House is going to lose seats.”

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