BoJo grows a pair

Well, this was unexpected.

I fully expected the other four eyes to roll over for Trump’s order to keep Huawei out of their 5G networks. The Kiwis and the Aussies caved immediately. I’ve long predicated that Canada will eventually follow suit, and I truly believed the UK would as well, especially after Boris became PM and Brexit becomes a reality. On the face of things, Boris needs some stuff from Trump, like a trade deal, that I would have thought ensures that he locks Huawei out of UK 5G.

So why does he appear to be giving Trump the finger?

I’ve always been of the belief that the Huawei ban is more about commerce than it is about security. The security claims, that Huawei will hand over all the secrets of the West to the Communist Party of China, seems dubious at best. In the real world of cyber-espionage, all the major players will infiltrate each others 5G networks, regardless of where the hardware is sourced. Huawei is widely regarded as being a generation ahead of Western technology. A ban would secure market share for Western companies.

Note what Boris has done. He’s not banned Huawei outright, but he’s capped their market share at 35%. I’m guessing there was some back and forth between Boris and Donny J, and that Trump signalled he could live with this deal before Boris made the announcement.

What’s in this for BoJo? He just “defied” Trump. That’s got to count for something in the polling numbers.

This has ramifications for Canada. If Trudeau follows Boris, and instead of an outright ban on Huawei imposes a market cap, he wins in at least two ways. Firstly, it gives him a chance to pose as something other than a Trump toady. That’s a political win for him.

Secondly, it could open up a path to unwinding the Meng Wanzhou logjam. That would be an even bigger political win.

The think tank here at Falling Downs used to predict with 99% certainty that Canada would institute a full ban on Huawei. Now the odds are we’ll take the opening Boris just gave us.