NICS Checks for June, 2025 Gun Sales 5% lower then 2024

In June of 2025, gun sales dropped 5% from June of 2024, according to the adjusted National Instant background Check System (NICS) as calculated by the National Shooting Sports Foundation, (NSSF). The number of adjusted gun sales totaled 1.06 million. This is the 71st month where the adjusted NICS numbers were over a million. The adjusted NICS numbers are calculated by the NSSF by taking the total number of NICS checks for the month, as supplied by the FBI, then subtracting the number of NICS checks for firearm permits and firearm permit rechecks.  May, June and July tend to be the lowest numbers for NICS checks of all the months. As June numbers are only 60 thousand above 1 million, it is uncertain if the number of sales for July of 2025 will be over a million. We will know in about a month.

Over the last 12 months, only three months have had greater numbers of firearm sales than the month from the previous year, although the overall drop in the other nine months is not large. The number of people with confidence in the Trump administration to look after the best interests of the United States is much improved compared to the Biden administration. The number of total NICS checks diminished by 2.5% from June of 2024, half as much as the adjusted number of firearm sales.

The firearms sales numbers are an estimate, because one NICS check can be used to purchase more than one firearm, and about 1 million people have permits which can be used as a substitute for a NICS check, as obtaining the permit already required a NICS check.

The economic numbers for the United States are strong. President Trump’s policies appear to have worked in diminishing the nuclear threat from Iran, coordinated with Israel. The Russia/Ukraine war continues, as President Trump attempts to bring about a ceasefire. The unsustainable spending and debt are at least acknowledged. There is a plan to deal with them. The Congress is so addicted to spending that a greater Republican majority will be needed to make the large cuts required. The Big Beautiful Bill has passed. It will take some time to determine all of the effects. It appears the tax on National Firearms Act (NFA) silencers/suppressors, short barreled rifles, short barreled shotguns, and any other firearms will be reduced to zero dollars. The tax on machine guns and destructive devises remains at $200. There will likely be lawsuits filed attacking the viability of a tax law regulating constitutionally protected items for zero tax income. The bill contains this language, as sent to President Trump:

SEC. 70436. REDUCTION OF TRANSFER AND MANUFACTURING TAXES FOR CERTAIN DEVICES. (a) Transfer Tax.--Section 5811(a) is amended to read as follows: ``(a) Rate.--There shall be levied, collected, and paid on firearms transferred a tax at the rate of-- ``(1) $200 for each firearm transferred in the case of a machinegun or a destructive device, and ``(2) $0 for any firearm transferred which is not described in paragraph (1).''. (b) Making Tax.--Section 5821(a) is amended to read as follows: ``(a) Rate.--There shall be levied, collected, and paid upon the making of a firearm a tax at the rate of-- ``(1) $200 for each firearm made in the case of a machinegun or a destructive device, and ``(2) $0 for any firearm made which is not described in paragraph (1).''.

 The NFA reform shall apply: 

to calendar quarters beginning more than 90 days after the date of the enactment of this Act.

If President Trump signs the Big Beautiful Bill on July 4th, 2025, according to this correspondent’s reading of the calendar, the changes will go into effect on January 1, 2026. This may have the effect of dampening silencer/suppressor and short barreled rifle and shotgun sales during the next six months, as people wait to take advantage of the NFA reform.

The world appears a bit more stable during the Trump administration. The domestic situation appears more rational. The economy appears to be doing better.

This correspondent expects firearm sales in July, as estimated by the adjusted NICS, to be very close to 1 million firearms.

 ©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.