Housing: I’ve worked thru 4 bubbles – they all end the same

The three primary drivers of the economy are starting to head south: retail, housing, autos. I can smell the housing market slipping away now. I’ve been early on housing, like I was when the mid-2000’s Bubble 1.0 popped, but I was eventually very correct (I sold my dream house in November 2004).

The housing market is beginning to crater. I draw on “hands on” data from the Denver area because I can get “boots on the ground” due diligence accomplished. Denver is considered somewhat of a demographic “bellweather” for economic trends as they unfold. I don’t care what the media propaganda is reporting, in Denver housing sales are rapidly slowing, inventory is rapidly building and prices are falling. I’ve witnessed two $2 million+ homes in my area reduce their offer price 14% and 20% respectively shortly after their initial listing.

Ultra-high end resort areas are starting to get killed. Aspen is reporting that sales are down more than 42% in the first-half of 2016 vs. 2015: Aspen’s Sustained Nosedive. Same with Long Island’s Hamptons, where sales volume in East Hampton and Southampton plunged 53% and 48% respectively from a year ago: LINK.

Once the high-end wets the bed, the rest of the market follows very reliably and obediently.

My view is supported by the homes sales data for July reported by Redfin.com last week. According to Redfin, home sales (closings) fell 11% in July: LINK. Redfin of course concocts a ridiculous calculus to rationalize the decline, but that’s nothing more than a disconsolate effort to defer acceptance of the unpleasant but inevitable reality.

Full article at:

http://news-uncensored-fresh.blogspot.be/2016/08/housing-ive-worked-thru-4-bubbles-they.html