Adios to the housing market!
I guess if an economic system in which 38% of the working age population is not working can be defined as “full employment” then monkeys are about to crawl of out Janet Yellen’s ass. I guess we’ve witnessed more stunning events this year…
Before we start assuming the Fed will raise rates three times in 2017, let’s consider that Bernanke’s “taper” speech was delivered in May 2013. 3 1/2 years later, the Fed Funds rate has been nudged up a whopping 50 basis points – one half of one percent.
I hope the Fed does start raising rates toward “normalized” rates, whatever “normalized” is supposed to mean. Certainly there’s nothing “normalized” about an economic system in which real rates are negative – that is to say, an economic system in which it’s cheaper to borrow money and spend it than it is to save.
Having said all that, put a big pitch-fork into the housing market. Notwithstanding the highly manipulated “seasonally adjusted annualized rate” data puked on a platter and served up warm by the National Association of Realtor and the Census Bureau – existing and new home sales data, respectively – the housing market in most areas of the country is deteriorating at an increasing rate. I review this data extensively and in-dept in my Short Seller’s Journal.
Even just marginally higher mortgage rates will choke off the ability of most buyers to qualify for anything less than an conventional mortgage with 20% down and a 720 or better credit score. With a rapidly shrinking full-time workforce – the Labor Department reported that last month the economy lost 100,000 full-time jobs – the percentage of the population that has a 720 credit rating and can afford 20% is dwindling rapidly.
The Dow Jones Home Construction index is down 2.5% today. What will happen to the stocks in that index when the Fed cranks back up it’s “we’re raising again” song and dance?
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