Hot Rolled Coil Prices Trend and Forecast

North America

In the first quarter of 2023, Hot Rolled Coil prices in the US market surged due to the increasing prices of raw materials and the rise in hand-to-mouth trading activities. Domestic mills raised offer prices, resulting in buyers’ skepticism after several rounds of mill price hikes. Even after formally raising prices by USD 450/MT between the end of November and the 21st of February, mills continued to receive higher flat steel spot offers. The price increases were led by Nucor, followed by Cliffs, US Steel, NLMK USA, and others. However, by the end of the quarter, HRC prices showed stagnancy, breaking six weeks of increases, as mills issued no new formal price hikes, and buyers began examining their order books. Although southern mills were booked until August, longer lead times did not appear to increase demand or allow mills to book higher-priced spot tonnes. Buyers reviewed their order books to determine their next moves and managed inventories by reducing contract purchases as the price cycle moved downward. As a result, HRC (3 mm) for Ex-US Midwest was fixed at USD 1150/MT.

Asia Pacific

The first quarter of 2023 witnessed an upward trend in the prices of Hot Rolled Coil in the Chinese market due to the enthusiasm of steel mills for producing HRC. This was driven by improved profits and sales, expectations of demand recovery, and investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. The stock of HRC in major cities declined as transactions increased, with strong speculative demand from traders and terminal enterprises purchasing on demand. Some steel mills in northeast China underwent maintenance in mid-Q1, causing HRC output to fall slightly. Fears of further price increases led to terminal enterprises purchasing primarily on demand, sparking a wait-and-see attitude among terminal operators. Market transactions were average due to speculative demand being greater than terminal demand, and the fluctuation in futures prices led to relatively deserted terminal procurement. Long-term and short-term market sentiment was entwined, and the maintenance of steel mills impacted the supply side. As a ripple effect, the HR Coil (Q235-1 mm) prices for Ex Shanghai (China) settled at USD 686/MT as a ripple effect.

Europe

In the first quarter of 2023, the European market witnessed an unprecedented surge in Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices, despite subdued trading. Domestic mills had good order books and limited supplies, which led them to increase their offers in January and March. The upbeat mood of the market was a result of good order books, a lack of competitive import offers, and an anticipated increase in demand. Asian mills increased their import offers after returning from the Lunar New Year holidays, which boosted domestic prices in the EU. Most mills sold all of their first quarter rolling coils, and there were only a few quantities of March manufacturing material available in the market. Delivery for Asian coils was reported to occur in June or July, which made buyers turn to local coil suppliers. However, some buyers were hesitant to make purchases due to worries that European Cold Rolled Coil Prices would start operating at higher capacities. End-users were reportedly unwilling to accept increased HRC pricing, and only small volumes were recently traded. As a result, buyers were unsure if the current trend would continue. Consequently, the HR Coil (3 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr settled at USD 925/MT.

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