Coal Prices: In the second quarter of 2023 | ChemAnalyst

 

For the Quarter Ending June 2023

North America

 

In the second quarter of 2023, the US Coal market experienced a bearish trend. In both the first and last month of the quarter, Coal prices declined by approximately 8% and 5.5%, respectively. This price drop was primarily attributed to a surplus of brown Coal supply in the US market and a low demand from overseas. The ample availability of brown Coal led to downward pressure on prices. Moreover, the mining and exploration sector experienced a boost in activity during April and May 2023, which further contributed to the increased supply of Coal in the country. This surge in mining and exploration was seasonal, adding to the already abundant Coal supply. However, in May 2023, there was a slight recovery in US Coal prices as they increased 3.3% during this month. The stability of demand for Coal from overseas markets, coupled with high demand from the downstream steel and power production industries, contributed to this positive momentum. Notably, the summer season saw the highest point of US electricity generation from Coal, aligning with the peak demand for electricity driven by the need for air conditioning. Additionally, there was a smaller peak in winter when certain regions of the country relied on electric heating devices such as heat pumps, electric radiators, space heaters, and other equipment to warm buildings.

 

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Asia

 

The second quarter of 2023 witnessed a downward price trend in the Asian Coal market. During the months of April, May, and June 2023, the price of Coal in Australia experienced a significant decline. Specifically, the price of Coal in Australia decreased by approximately 1.7%, 17.4%, and 13.6% in April, May, and June, respectively. This downward trend can be attributed to several factors. The decline in the price of Coal in Australia can be attributed to the improvement in the mining industry during this period. The ideal hot and dry weather conditions for mining operations, influenced by the El Niño effect, allowed for increased productivity in the Australian mining sector. As a result, the increased Coal supply led to a decrease in prices. Another significant factor that affected the Asian Coal market was the approval of a new Coal mine in Central Queensland, known as the Isaac River Coal Mine. The Australian government’s approval of this mine further strengthened the supply of Coal in the Asian and global markets. The increased Coal production added to the bearish sentiment and contributed to the declining prices. Despite the decline in prices, the demand for Coal from Asian countries remained stable during the second quarter of 2023. However, the market experienced an oversupply situation as the supply of Coal was high. This oversupply and steady demand created a bearish trend in the Asian Coal market.

 

Europe

 

During the second quarter of 2023, the European Coal market faced a bearish trend primarily due to the availability of cheaper imported products from countries like Australia and Indonesia. Coal prices in Australia saw a decline of approximately 1.7%, 17%, and 13.6%, while in Indonesia, they decreased by around 6%, 22%, and 7%. This sudden drop in Coal prices resulted from an oversupply of Coal in comparison to the relatively stable demand. The energy industry in Europe was actively transitioning towards renewable energy sources to achieve carbon neutrality, which necessitated a significant reduction in Coal consumption. The oversupply of Coal in the global market and a stable demand contributed to this situation in Europe. Additionally, Seaborne thermal Coal prices in Asia reached their lowest point in two years due to weakened demand in Europe and declining prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG), despite strong demand in the primary importing region. The major grades of thermal Coal exported by top producers Indonesia and Australia continued to experience losses during this period.

 

Middle East

 

The South African Coal market faced a bearish market situation throughout the second quarter of 2023. This was primarily due to the abundant availability of Coal products both in the region and the international market. The prices of Coal experienced significant declines during this period, with decreases of approximately 4% in April, 22% in May, and 1% in June 2023 in the South African market. The market was further impacted by the challenges faced by the state-owned electricity company, which struggled with a fleet of dilapidated and non-operational Coal-fired power plants. These plants failed to generate sufficient power, resulting in scheduled blackouts across the country. To address this issue, the decision was made to close down a Coal-fired power plant and replace it with a solar, wind, and battery storage facility. One such transition was observed at the Komati Power Station in Middelburg, South Africa, in June 2023. This decline in demand from downstream power plants also contributed to the overall bearish trend during this quarter. As the quarter drew to a close, the price of Brown Coal FOB Richards Bay (South Africa) settled at approximately USD 99/MT.

 

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