Faber: China's Unwind 'Will Be A Disaster'

Marc Faber Warns China’s Credit Crisis Unwind ‘Will Be a Disaster’

marketoracle

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, appeared on Bloomberg Television today to discuss the state of the Chinese economy.

Faber told Trish Regan and Matt Miller “I think that we had a colossal credit bubble in China and that this credit bubble is now being gradually deflated….if I look at export figures from China, and they are very closely correlated to overall economic growth, then there is a huge discrepancy between what China reports and what China’s trading partners are reporting.”

 

He said, “There’s lots of funny things that are happening in China. And when the whole thing unwinds it will be a disaster.”

TRISH REGAN: China’s currency fell to an 11-month low after China’s central bank doubled the yuan’s daily trading range against the dollar. The decision to allow greater exchange rate fluctuations comes at a time when China’s economy is showing some serious signs of losing momentum. The government is targeting a 7.5 percent growth rate. That’s actually the slowest since 1990. But leave it to the author of Gloom, Boom and Doom, that report, to say that it will likely be a little more than half that. Marc Faber joining us right now on the phone.

Marc, always good to talk to you. Somewhat depressing at times, but we’re calling – or you’re calling here for 4 percent growth out of China this year. Why?

MARC FABER: Well I think that we had a colossal credit bubble in China and that this credit bubble is now being gradually deflated and will bring about problems in the real estate market and among some major players in the commodity markets as well. So overall, if I look at export figures from China, and they are very closely correlated to overall economic growth, then there is a huge discrepancy between what China reports and what China’s trading partners are reporting.

So if you look at the figures of China, exports are still growing. If you look at the trade figures China exports to Taiwan, so China records exports of so and so much. The Taiwan report imports from China at a much lower level. So which figures are more reliable? I think the figures of the trading partners of China are more reliable. And they would suggest that growth has slown down considerably.

MATT MILLER: Hang on. So Marc, are you calling for a Chinese report of 4 percent or are you saying it’s more realistic that we’ll see 4 percent and the Chinese will come out with a report or their own numbers that are closer to the 7, 7.5 that’s expected?

FABER: Governments will always publish the statistics that they wish to show irrespective whether that is in China or in other countries. Governments control basically the statistical offices, so they can show whatever they want. As Stalin said, it’s not important who votes but who counts the votes. And the government counts the statistics.

REGAN: Yeah, and if you’re China, you’ve got some muscle there to count what you want. But at the end of the day, investors, they have a tendency to see through these things. Marc Faber, do you believe investors are seeing through this? Have they discounted China enough in your view?

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