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Moderate to high solar activity with possible geomagnetic disturbances

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Solar activity has been at moderate to high levels for the past 24 hours. AR1652 produced two M-class and 8 C-class solar flares  in the past 24 hours, and it has rapidly evolved to a compact beta-gamma-delta configuration. This active region erupted M1.0 flare at 00:50 UTC, followed by M1.7 solar flare at 08:38 UTC on January 13, 2013.

Solar X-Ray flux (Credit: NOAA/SWPC)

The second (M1.7) eruption was associated with a metric Type II and IV radio emissions. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. Both flares were quite impulsive with no obvious CME signatures. If this is confirmed, geomagnetic conditions should be mostly quiet during the next 48 hours, but due to the risk of a geoeffective CME, warning conditions are issued.

Current visible active regions (Credit: SDO/AIA304)

There are currently six numbered sunspots on the visible disk. Sunspots AR1652 and AR1654 have beta-gamma magnetic fields that have the potential for M-class flares, with a small risk of an X-class flare from AR1654. Huge sunspot group AR 1654 is crackling with C- and M-class solar flares, and it poses a threat for even stronger eruptions. NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate a 65% chances of M-class and 10% chance of X-class solar flares in the next 24 hours. There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the Sun.

Satellite Environment plot –  Proton Flux from GOES-13, Electron Flux and GOES Hp from GOES-13 and GOES-15 (Credit: NOAA/SWPC)

Earth is entering a stream of moderately fast (500 km/s) solar wind stream which could spark some geomagnetic activity. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 511 km/s at 20:43 UTC on January 13, 2013. Total IMF reached 11.1 nT and the maximum southward component of Bz reached -8.3 nT.

NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate 15% chances for geomagnetic disturbances at high latitudes in the coming hours. Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication is possible on sunlit side with occasional loss of radio contact and degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for brief intervals. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

Aurora forecast (Credit: NOA/POES)

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

Solar wind
speed: 518.8 km/sec
density: 3.1 protons/cm3

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 169 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal6.8 nT
Bz2.5 nT south

Featured image credit: The Watchers (SDO/SOHO’s LASCO C2)

Moderate to high solar activity with possible geomagnetic disturbances

Related posts:

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  2. Geomagnetic storming levels back to normal Geomagnetic storming reached the G2 (Moderate) level at high latitudes…


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    • OneNineSixSix Ajai Dev Malik

      Okay Fellas….

      AR 1654 is just the sign of a connection gone bad….. The Idiot (Call-Sign – Mahendra Chauhan) is a BLIND cyber-terrorist & hardened cyber criminal…..

      He too drives a FLYING SAUCER…. capable of causing much damage…. Just watch out for the arrival of a greyish medium-sized spider…..

      • OneNineSixSix Ajai Dev Malik

        Okay….

        I could be wrong about the numbers ar 1652 0r ar 1654…. I am not sure…..

      • OneNineSixSix Ajai Dev Malik

        Okay….

        I have been monitoring these signs with strange discovery….. as if our lives are in strange sync with these big light bulbs in the sky…..

        Following SPACE-TALK is boring & not healthy…..

        I am going back to be with friends, who love PLAYBOY Magazines & watch PORN….. These days, you don’t have to watch it…. the disease is everywhere….. Might log into the victim nearest…..

        At least those people do have a sense of humor…. and they can smile & laugh at times…..

        Crawling here with the other awakened VISIONARIES can turn you insane…..

        Don’t worry….. I shall be with JESUS on Sunday…..

        • OneNineSixSix Ajai Dev Malik

          And I expect you to return to normalcy….. watching these signs will do you no good…. I am going to be with the others….. living the same life as the others…..

          I am again going to be angry….. and they shall surprise you with appearance of filaments there…..

          But you will not believe it ?….. Nah…..

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