July 2 Unemployment - My How Our Expectations Have Changed!
30 months into this recession (is it over? save that for a different post!) we are looking at a jobs report that shows 83k of new private jobs. If you take out the birth/death adjustment of a positive 147k, where the government assumes that everyone at a non-responding (re: bankrupt) company immediately found gainful employment elsewhere, then we actually shed 64k private jobs.
I know the markets have sold off dramatically in the last several days, and that we are 1,500 pts off the top of the Dow from April, but I would still have expected a pretty dismal day with these numbers. But it’s not dismal, so far it’s kind of boring. Which tells me that people aren’t surprised. That’s the part that is so interesting. Market participants are not surprised that, after 2 and 1/2 years of this, we are barely treading water, if that, on the jobs front. Which must mean that few people are believing the recovery hype and are realistic in their assessment of what lies ahead.
Read the original story at H. S. Dent
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