True Intelligence and Crisis

There is a terrible lack of common sense and real intelligence in America today. In the current crisis, we don’t need people with high IQ’s or high GPA’s from Ivy league schools; we need lucid thinking from people who are objective and creative. I like to think true intelligence reveals itself in times of crisis. In my reading of history, I’m always amazed at how drastic the differences are in leadership in times of crisis. When things are going well, Kings pontificate about how they are descended from God and how they can do no wrong; however, when a crisis hits, they wilt. Others, like Julius Caesar, rise to the occasion. Julius Caesar was truly intelligent because in times of crisis, he dissected problems in new and innovative ways. Just because you did well in school or have a high IQ does not mean you have this ability.

At the end of the day it comes down to this: show me you have the clarity of thought to see the train wreck that’s coming and show me you can prepare intelligently. Don’t show me your degrees; this means nothing. Please spare me the same old conventional arguments that are just dead wrong- I’ve heard them all. Stocks are a leading indicator? Wrong. Stocks can’t go up in an economic downturn? Wrong. Lowering interest rates spurs economic growth? Wrong. Show me you can make an intelligent argument with real data and a real understanding of the dynamic nature of the economy.

Let’s think about interest rates and its supposed effects on the economy. The Fed said, and therefore most people believed, that they can manipulate consumer demand just by tweaking interest rates up and down. Well I never believed this and I told you all for the longest time it was a flawed theory. Now look at the data: 30 year mortgage rates are lower than they were at the height of the housing boom, yet housing is still falling. One more braindead theory meets the dust.

The people I respect the most are those who can objectively judge the merits of an argument without being influenced by your credentials, who else thinks the same way, or what conventional wisdom dictates they should think. These are the type of people who are the movers and shakers. They are open-minded and they have the confidence in their ability to make intelligent decisions, to hell with what other people think.

What frustrates me the most is that people need validation from mainstream sources to believe anything. About 4 years ago I tried to tell those that wanted to get rich by being a lawyer that law school was a stupid investment and that the future supply and demand fundamentals were horrible. Of course no one listened. Now that article after article is coming out about how law school is a horrible investment, recent grads are complaining about why these articles weren’t out when they were in school. Hmm….if you need a mainstream news article to tell you really obvious things, I really can’t help you. The same thing will happen with this debt crisis. Most people will not believe you about the magnitude of this crisis unless it’s front page news on the Wall Street Journal or New York Times. Most people can’t think for themselves because no matter how much they pontificate about their degrees and credentials, they are not dynamic thinkers.

Anyway, I just needed to get these things off my chest. When I see a major crisis coming just over the horizon, that’s when I get the most frustrated at my fellow man. Believe me, I will be prepared for what’s coming. Gold is setting up for a moon shot that will shock everyone.; maybe this is what it will take for people to wake up and smell the roses.

True Intelligence and Crisis is a post from: Expected Returns

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