Why My Pessimism is Growing

I hate to say this, but I am probably going to be a lot more pessimistic about our economic prospects moving forward. Confidence is collapsing  as nearly half of Americans think we are headed for another Depression. Our leaders are showing they are true morons who can’t come to an intelligent solution to this debt crisis. Gold is rising and those who screamed for years that gold was a crowded trade have now gone into hiding. As I’ve said before, the reason I love markets so much is because they are objective.

In real life, I have a special gift for making people red in the face and angry at me about controversial subjects. The reason behind this is simple: I will not just believe anything without thinking it through and investigating. While in everyday life I may seem a little eccentric, the markets continue to validate my perception of the world. I am the first person to say I am not always right, but at least I spend time learning the other side of an argument before I open my mouth. In the years ahead, independent and objective thinkers are going to thrive.

I know some of the things I am predicting make people uncomfortable. I live in the U.S., so I sure as hell don’t want to see civil unrest here. But as someone who tries to be objective as possible, I must tell you the truth as I see it. If pensions are underfunded to the tune of over $1 trillion and Social Security is in annual deficit, what am I supposed to say about the retirement prospects for Boomers? And if Boomers don’t receive the Social Security benefits they paid into during their working years, are they just going to shrug their shoulders and move on? Yea right. And what about the younger generations? The unemployment rate for 16-19 year olds is sitting at 24.5%. For recent graduates, the burden of student loans is tremendous. Believe me, if you put all the pieces of the puzzle together, you’ll realize civil unrest in the next 2-3 years is a huge risk.

What I’ve found is that even open-minded people have a sore point where they absolutely will not budge on a topic. The topic could be global warming, religion, or the corruption of investment banks (if they work for one). I try my best not to be like this. I am always open to change my views on a topic as long as there is a compelling counterargument. If the government were to do something intelligent, I would be the first person to applaud them. But understand that their thought process about this debt crisis is totally wrong. The solution to this crisis won’t come from just tweaking tax rates up a little and cutting spending a little. To think this way is just very simple-minded. Let’s start getting some domestic ownership of Treasuries by eliminating taxes on them so that interest payments at least boost our economy. Let’s move to an indirect tax system. Cut corporate taxes across the board and keep them there. Stop over-regulating markets that don’t need much regulating and start regulating the OTC derivative market. End the mindless wars that do NOTHING to improve our economic well-being, and only serve to line the pockets of people like Dick Cheney and Halliburton.

People in America need to wake up and realize that those in power will always try to the obfuscate the truth by attacking the messenger and not the message. If the mainstream media calls Ron Paul a kook, non-independent thinkers automatically think it’s the truth without investigating. He is the only politician I can think of who has a conscience and just tells the truth. I don’t agree with everything he says, but by and large he is on point with his message. The government needs to stop spending and meddling with the economy. We are going to experience a major crisis most likely in the next 2-3 years. Just wait for interest rates to rise above 4% and you can just about turn out the lights. Gold by then should be at about $2500 and gold permabears, deflationists, and permabulls on our economy will officially be extinct.

Why My Pessimism is Growing is a post from: Expected Returns

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