Double Take
Here’s one take on today’s data:
“Consumers Ramp Up Spending” (Wall Street Journal)
Consumer spending posted strong gains in July despite weak income growth, the latest sign the economy gained some momentum at the start of the third quarter before the stock market began its recent gyrations.
Consumption rose 0.8% during the month, following a slight contraction in June, the Commerce Department said Monday. Adjusted for inflation, spending rose a healthy 0.5%—the strongest gain since December 2009—after two flat months.
The latest figures suggest the economy regained some strength at the start of the third quarter after extremely weak growth in the first half of the year. The numbers could help dispel fears that the economy was heading back into a recession this summer.
And here’s another:
“The Bad News in the Spending Report” (Wall Street Journal‘s MarketBeat blog)
We mentioned that the big gain in personal spending in July was not matched by a big gain in income, meaning consumers had to eat into their savings. A closer look at the income side is even less pretty.
Dan Greenhaus of BTIG notes that personal income, excluding transfer payments, was flat in July. A big part of “transfer payments” is government assistance — unemployment benefits and the like. This isn’t exactly a sign of a healthy economy.
Mr. Greenhaus writes:
there has been a disturbing upward stickiness of the amount of government support to the economy. … the percentage of incomes provided by government transfer payments has remained elevated. What this implies is that for a large segment of the economy, the government is subsidizing consumption levels. To some degree, that is to be expected in recessions and difficult economic environments but over time, this runs the risk of become entrenched. Ultimately, that would be a negative for job growth, income growth, productivity and the economy more generally.
Given what happened in the stock market today, I guess a lot of investors missed that second report…?
Read more at Financial Armageddon
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