Is the End Near?

Earlier this week, I said that I was lightening up on stocks and that there was potential for a retest of recent lows. Well the retest appears to be in the cards right now. We’ll see how ugly this gets. If the recent lows are violated, I’m stepping aside.

A lot of people think that this is the big crisis we’ve been waiting for and that the end is near. I disagree. 10-year bonds just spiked to 2% and this is going to help keep our debt servicing costs stable. Yes confidence is collapsing, but it is creating an artificial move to Treasuries for now. Until this situation reverses, we are relatively safe from a catastrophic panic.

I’ve always said that the crisis would hit Europe first, then the U.S. The European debt crisis was supposed to be over a long time ago, yet it only intensifies due to the stupidity of European leaders. Watch for the crisis in Europe to coincide with a crisis in municipalities in America. These are both ticking time bombs, especially with a real estate market that is slow to recover. States are raising taxes and revenues are improving somewhat, but this is what typically happens when you raise taxes. It’s a short-term fix that creates long-term problems.

Gold hit another record high today as shorts got blown away. I don’t like going short gold because of these kind of spike moves; I’d much prefer to lighten up on spikes and add on waterfall moves. This strategy is profitable because it keeps you even-tempered. It also doesn’t hurt that we’re in a bull market. Buy without margin and you will do fine. What’s the point of trying to make 200% returns into 300% returns if you are taking on a ton more risk?

The volatility you see right now is just a precursor to what’s to come. Just wait until the crisis comes to our shores. Our leaders said the homebuyer tax credit would heal the economy. It didn’t. They said the same for clash for clunkers, QE1 and QE2, and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Now they are saying that we can fix this crisis by either raising taxes or cutting spending. Well I’m telling you it won’t. We are not getting to the core of the problem. The solutions are so simple: Indirect taxes. Lower corporate tax rates. The elimination of taxes on foreign-earned income. The issuance of interest-free currency instead of interest-bearing bonds. Tax-free bonds for U.S. citizens. You won’t hear any of these solutions from our leaders, so believe me, the crisis is going to come here and there will be a lot of finger pointing.

Do our leaders really think all the inefficiencies we’ve created over the years can be resolved just by raising taxes or cutting spending? Let’s get real here. Obama, please bring in some people with common sense to solve our country’s problems. If you don’t, you will see gold at $3,000, easy.

Is the End Near? is a post from: Expected Returns

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