The Calm Before the Debt Crisis Storm
It’s axiomatic that the government makes problems worse, especially problems they didn’t see coming. The government didn’t foresee this debt crisis, so they sure as hell don’t know how to get out of it. Just think of programs like the homebuyer tax credit and “cash for clunkers” that did not have the intended effect. Our government leaders don’t have real world experience dealing with economic issues. They need to keep their hands off or this debt crisis will spiral out of control.
In the latest rendition of government stupidity, the Treasury is considering floating interest rate notes. I really don’t understand this one: interest rates are near historic lows and people are overreacting to the crisis in Europe by flocking to U.S. Treasuries. If anything, it is the time to get people invested in long-term Treasuries. Floating interest rate notes will just increase debt servicing costs in this environment. Real investors are taking the exact opposite approach of the government.
The U.S. economy will eventually collapse, but it is a matter of timing. I’ve said before that I expect a lull in volatility that will have everyone convinced we are in an economic recovery. Caterpillar just exceeded earnings estimates and this implies the global economy is in decent shape. Emerging markets will take the mantle from the Western world; this is their century to shine. And I’ll say this for the 100th time: China is not a bubble.
In 2012 or 2013, real estate should recover as should stocks. But I warn you that this will be the fakeout move before a truly dramatic collapse in government bonds. Volatility will rise and this will be the most apparent in gold (to the upside). The correct play continues to be buying gold stocks on pullbacks. This is your opportunity. Gold will trade at above $3000 when it is all said and done.
The Calm Before the Debt Crisis Storm is a post from: Expected Returns
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