Exports: Risk of Recession Rising
Maybe I’m a little jumpy, having just created a series of videos about business planning with a risk of recession.
Today’s foreign trade data worry me. If the United States economy is going to turn down, then foreign trade is the most likely source of the slump. Consumers are fairly stable now, spending in pace with their income gains. Housing and non-residential construction are weak, but don’t have much room to worsen. Government spending is not going to suddenly crash. The two major risk areas are exports and business capital spending.
The latest decline in exports may just be a blip. It’s not unusual to have a sawtooth pattern, with the little dips being meaningless in the long run. That could be the case here. However, we know that Europe is slowing down and quite possibly in recession now. China’s economy is growing less rapidly due to its inflation-fighting efforts. (For more details, see myChina economic forecast article.)
It’s too soon to hunker down, but not too soon for some planning. You can start by watching my videos:
Business Planning With Risk of Recession: The Stance
Business Planning With Risk of Recession: Strategic Initiatives
www.businomics.com
“Dr. Bill Conerly is the consultant who connects the dots between the economy and business decisions. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Duke University and was formerly Senior Vice President at First Interstate Bank.
Dr. Conerly is author of Businomics: From the Headlines to Your Bottomline—How to Profit in Any Economic Cycle (http://www.businomics.com/), which provides business leaders with a framework for understanding current economic news. He is co-author of Thinking Economics, a multi-media high school economics curriculum used in 24 states.”
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