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China Crash 2012: Heres How Its Finally Happening This Time

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 Mamta Badkar|Sep. 12, 2012

 

For decades, experts have been predicting a crash in China.

 

They warned that the centrally planned, export-dependent economy, could not sustain itself year after year.

But through multiple crises, China has motored along, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the process.

But things appear to be different this time. Corporate profits are tanking, and the Shanghai Composite is at the same levels it was during the depths of the 2008-2009 crash. A hard landing has hit the corporate sector.

And many are questioning whether policymakers are really in control of the slowdown this time, or if the economy is in fact heading for a hard landing i.e. four straight quarters of below five percent growth.

Chinese leaders are on notice.

Continued below.

 

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A recently announced infrastructure stimulus showed that Beijing is starting to worry about the depth of its economic slowdown.

But it also signaled that its economic rebalancing has been put on hold.

How did China get to this point? When did exports and infrastructure start driving the economy? And what is driving bearish sentiment now?

We look at how the Chinese economy has changed since 1978 and the biggest challenges it has lying ahead.

China has changed rapidly in the last two decades. This is Shanghai in 1990

 

And this is Shanghai in 2010

 

Big changes came to China in 1979 when policymakers implemented reforms to open its economy

 

 

The contribution of exports to GDP surged from 4.6 percent in 1978, when reformists like Deng Xiaoping began to implement market-oriented reforms. The ratio of exports to GDP climbed to 19.2 percent in 1997 as the country became increasingly exposed to global demand.

 

Source: Bank of America

The reforms significantly improved quality of life, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.

 

Chinese protest during the Cultural Revolution

Wikimedia Commons

The failures of China’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ and chairman Mao’s cultural revolution hurt the nation’s economic growth.

 

But after Deng Xiaoping began pushing through reforms in 1979 and the economy started to grow, the livelihood of the Chinese started to improve.

Data from the IMF shows that per capita GDP rose from $226 in 1978, to $1,042 in 2001. In 2011, Chinese per capita GDP rose to $5,447.

Source: IMF

The Chinese economy was the tenth largest in the world in 1978.

 

In 1978 the Chinese economy was the 10th largest in the world, with GDP totaling $148.2 billion. By 2007, China had knocked Germany out of third place and its GDP totaled $3.5 trillion.

Source: World Bank


 MORE HERE

 



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    Total 10 comments
    • ElOregonian

      Look at the picture of the menacing government goons humiliating two citizens just before they are brutally murdered. LOOK HARD! because this will be coming to our land once we let our government embrace communism here. Isn’t our Country worth saving? Remove the Banksters, the communist and their sympathizers, the Radical lefties, the criminals who collaborate with governments and rescind tour liberties, totalitarian regimes hell-bent on enslaving its population, corrupt bureaucrats and crony capitalists perverting the free markets.

      Commonsense tells me that freedom comes from being able to have the ability to choose what is best for you and your family and the freedom to succeed or fail according to your decisions. It does not come from anyone but God himself.

      • Old Harry

        Normally I would not comment on this article and your response, but this time I feel you have made a valid statement. You have presented your argument very well…

    • Anonymous

      bla bla bla

    • Anonymous

      bla bla

    • Anonymous

      bla

    • Anonymous

      0.-

    • Buckworth Jackson

      Thanks to Wal-Mart shopprs and the ‘free trade crowd.

    • Dave West

      … nice pictures of Shanghai (the Shanghai Nights one)… but, where’s Jackie Chan?? … China is on their own… why should I care what happens to China?? … had Nixon not taken on himself with Henry to awaken the dragon, the US would be far more secure today!

      … blah, blah, blah. . .

    • Pateriot

      Hard landing? We are dreaming of one quarter at 5% growth!!

    • Pix

      China has a different method of boosting it’s ecconomey when it’s failing, they build cities. Christian America’s solution is to blanket bomb undeveloped countries back to the stone age so they can assest strip them.

      No guesses as to which solution is the more humane between Atheist China and Christian America.

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