Advance Notice
I’m speaking at a United Nations Environment Program conference in Bangkok next week, and giving some public talks there as well, so I’ve written my posts for the next two weeks for Business Spectator already–on the topic of Australian house prices.
The ABS will also release its House Price Index data next week (on Monday November 4th) and I’ll try to update a key graph in next week’s post–the correlation of the acceleration of mortgage debt to change in house prices–with that data before Business Spectator posts my article. Prior to the ABS data being published, this indicator is consistent with house prices rising substantially in real terms (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Mortgage acceleration and house prices before next week’s ABS data
However it’s also interesting to note that the level of acceleration has been trending down over time—the peak in 2007 of 2% of GDP p.a. p.a. compares to just over 1% in 2010 (even under the influence of the First Home Vendors Boost). I expect this is because mortgage debt continued to rise in Australia after the crisis—it just grew more slowly than GDP for a while—whereas it fell in the USA (see Figure 2). The result is that there is very little headroom for mortgage debt to accelerate.
Figure 2: America has delevered, but Australia has not
Of course, the fact that Self-Managed-Superannuation Funds can now indulge in levered speculation on house prices and call it investing may mean that there’s more headroom here than Figure 2 implies. I’ll discuss this and other issues in a series of posts in Business Spectator, starting with next week.
For readers in Thailand, the public event there is being organised by the MBMG Group. Click on the link below if you’d like to attend:
Tuesday, 5 November 2013 7.00–9.00pm (6.30pm Registration)
Sheraton Grande Sukhumvit
- Professor Steve Keen, the leading Academic exponent of Minskyian instability
- Richard Duncan, New York Times best-selling author
- Paul Gambles, Managing Partner of The MBMG Group
Source: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2013/11/01/advance-notice/#utm_source=feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=feed
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Lion’s Mane Mushroom
Mushrooms are having a moment. One fabulous fungus in particular, lion’s mane, may help improve memory, depression and anxiety symptoms. They are also an excellent source of nutrients that show promise as a therapy for dementia, and other neurodegenerative diseases. If you’re living with anxiety or depression, you may be curious about all the therapy options out there — including the natural ones.Our Lion’s Mane WHOLE MIND Nootropic Blend has been formulated to utilize the potency of Lion’s mane but also include the benefits of four other Highly Beneficial Mushrooms. Synergistically, they work together to Build your health through improving cognitive function and immunity regardless of your age. Our Nootropic not only improves your Cognitive Function and Activates your Immune System, But it benefits growth of Essential Gut Flora, further enhancing your Vitality.
Our Formula includes:
Lion’s Mane Mushrooms which Increase Brain Power through nerve growth, lessen anxiety, reduce depression, and improve concentration. Its an excellent adaptogen, promotes sleep and improves immunity.
Shiitake Mushrooms which Fight cancer cells and infectious disease, boost the immune system, promotes brain function, and serves as a source of B vitamins.
Maitake Mushrooms which regulate blood sugar levels of diabetics, reduce hypertension and boosts the immune system.
Reishi Mushrooms which Fight inflammation, liver disease, fatigue, tumor growth and cancer. They Improve skin disorders and soothes digestive problems, stomach ulcers and leaky gut syndrome.
Chaga Mushrooms which have anti-aging effects, boost immune function, improve stamina and athletic performance, even act as a natural aphrodisiac, fighting diabetes and improving liver function.
Try Our Lion’s Mane WHOLE MIND Nootropic Blend 60 Capsules. Today Be 100% Satisfied Or Receive A Full Money Back Guarantee Order Yours Today By Following This Link.