Real Money Says Hillary Clinton Is Our Next President
Tuesday, April 26, 2016 0:35
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Don’t shoot the messenger… but Hillary Clinton is all but guaranteed to be our next president…
Importantly, this isn’t based on my opinion. This is based on real-money bets.
As I’ll explain today, the real-money bets on the election outcomes tell us that Hillary will be our next president…
When you turn on CNBC or open the Wall Street Journal, you only hear about the latest polls. But the reality is, real-money bets have proven to be better predictors of election outcomes.
So… if you DON’T want Hillary as president, then you’d better do something quickly to change people’s minds. Otherwise it looks like smooth sailing for Hillary.
The election outcome isn’t completely set in stone, of course… Anything can happen. But you have to realize the “real money” is betting heavily on a Clinton win.
Let me explain…
You might be surprised to hear it, but you are actually allowed to bet on the outcomes of the primaries and the elections. The longest-running way to do this is through the University of Iowa.
Betting through the Iowa Electronic Markets (“IEM”) is pretty simple. The bets are the same as flipping a coin…
Let’s pretend we’re betting on the outcome of flipping a silver dollar. I bet heads, you bet tails. If it’s heads, I get to keep the dollar. If it’s tails, you get to keep the dollar. It’s an “all or nothing” bet.
It’s similar for IEM betting… If your candidate wins, you get a dollar. If your candidate loses, you get nothing.
So the question is… how much money are you willing to bet on your candidate winning?
Let’s take a look at what the real money is doing right now…
As I write, the last “trade” on Bernie Sanders winning his party’s nomination was at 5 cents…
That tells us that Bernie is an incredible long shot. If you take this bet, there are two outcomes here for you: Either you lose your 5 cents, or you make 20 times your money.
The real-money traders think that Hillary is a shoo-in to win the Democratic nomination. The last trade on Hillary was 92 cents. If you put up 92 cents today, you will be paid out 100 cents if she wins her party’s nomination.
On the Republican side, according to real-money bets, Ted Cruz is struggling a lot more than you might think. The last trade on Cruz winning the nomination was just 14 cents. Ouch.
So it’s clear that the real money is betting on a Clinton/Trump battle for the White House.
Then what happens in the general election? What outcome is the real money betting on there?
The real money is betting on the Democrat to win the White House.
A year ago in the race-for-the-White House bet, the real money sat at roughly 55 cents for the Democrat and 45 cents for the Republican.
Since then, the gap has widened. (This is typical as you approach the final $1 payout.)
As I write, the last trade was 72 cents for the Democrat to win the White House, and 32 cents for the Republican. (Sometimes the bets don’t add up to exactly 100, but those are the last trades.)
In short, based on real-money betting, it really looks like Hillary is our next president…
Like I said, don’t shoot the messenger. I’m not expressing an opinion here… I’m just reporting the facts…
Good investing,
Steve
P.S. For more information on real-money betting – or to do it yourself – click here.
Source: http://www.stansberryresearch.com/dailywealth/3256/real-money-says-hillary-clinton-is-our-next-president
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