The S&P 500 in Week 4 of May 2017

With the long Memorial Day weekend holiday looming on the calendar, Week 4 of May 2017 was a slow week where trading the S&P 500 was concerned.

When the biggest news of the week was the release of the minutes from the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting three weeks earlier, the most significant market reaction was for investors to once again align their focus on 2017-Q2 in setting the level of the S&P 500, which coincides with the expected timing of the Fed’s next short term rate hike.

After that, with traders looking to get away for the long weekend, there wasn’t much else of note that happened in the fourth week of May 2017….

Monday, 22 May 2017

• U.S. rates futures hold losses after Fed’s Kaplan view

• The “Fed’s Kaplan view” is that Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan believes that thre interest rate increases are “appropriate” in 2017.
• Also: Fed’s Kaplan says he’ll be patient in assessing inflation

Oil rises to month-high with output cut extension expected

Wall Street ends up; defense, tech stocks a boost

Tuesday, 23 May 2017

• Oil settles up slightly on view OPEC will extend output cuts
• Kashkari adds to dovish caution on rate hikes at Fed
• Wall Street rises on investor relief after Trump budget

• Trump seeks to slash $3.6 trillion of spending in austere budget
• Factbox: Key points of Trump’s 2018 budget proposal

Wednesday, 24 May 2017

• Oil pulls back slightly on low U.S. gasoline stock draw
• Home sales fall as tight supply boosts prices
• S&P 500 hits record high close following Fed minutes

• Fed ties rate hike to economic rebound, sees balance sheet cuts in 2017

Thursday, 25 May 2017

• Wall Street hits record highs, helped by consumer stocks

Friday, 26 May 2017

• Oil prices rebound; dollar firms as sterling drops
• Wall St. drifts before long weekend; consumer stocks up

Barry Ritholtz lists the week’s positives and negatives in his weekly economic data roundup.

On a cautionary note, the S&P 500′s ticking clock problem to which we’ve been alluding in recent weeks not gone away, so as long as the “Fed’s Kaplan” way of thinking continues to influence how far forward in time investors focus their attention, with both the third and fourth quarters in play for the timing of the Fed’s next rate hike after the almost certain one to be announced in June 2017. As such, the market is at a heightened risk for a sudden increase in volatility.

We’ll see what happens in the holiday-shortened fifth week of May 2017!