The New Supply-Side Of Housing & Landlord Nation

David Stockman tweeted this chart this morning.

A shift in the supply curve for new homes to the left.   OK  – and buying at irrational prices fueled by artificially low-interest rates and excess money.  The irrational panci buying will take care of itself as interest rates rise and the Fed reduces its balance sheet making money tighter.

The New Supply-SIde Economics Is Not Good

We have written how private equity has taken a yuuuge supply of housing off the market through their bankruptcy purchases, and now rent to the same people they foreclosed on.

Rising Costs

The rising costs of building, primarily labor shortages in the construction sector, and restrictive zoning laws are constraining new building and supply of new homes.

The lack of enough skilled workers and a narrow talent pipeline has added extra hurdles, time, and costs to many current projects, according to builders, hindering the current boom time in the industry.

“The number one issue is the cost and availability of labor,” says Randy Strauss, owner of Strauss Construction in Amherst, Ohio, roughly 40 miles east of Cleveland.

The issue is a nationwide one. Contractors in areas such as Houston, which were battered by Hurricane Harvey last year, have struggled to staff up, and the National Association of Home Builders recently found that 82 percent of its members believe the cost and availability of labor are their biggest issues. In 2011, only 13 percent named labor costs as their biggest worry.  — Curbed

The immigration crackdown has played a significant role in the labor shortage in the construction sector.

One study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that over 1.1 million undocumented immigrants, many of them skilled in essential trades such as framing, work in the construction industry.  –  CITYLAB

Lumber Prices

The parabolic rise in lumber prices isn’t helping either.  They are off over 12 percent from last week’s high, however, with several days of limit down in the futures markets.  Look no further than the long-term lumber price chart to understand what tariffs do to prices and input costs, and hurt the majority.

Last April, the Trump administration placed a 20.83 percent tariff on Canadian lumber, to the benefit of politically valuable voters in Maine. Within the construction industry, these imports commonly turn into framing lumber, which is used to build single-family homes and small multifamily buildings.
– CITILAB

Bad timing by the administration unless you belong to the small minority of those who make their living in the framing lumber business.

Policy Relief Needed

Shortages are breaking out and are now ubiquitous throughout the economy.

Go no further than the housing market.  Shortages of new and existing homes; shortages of buildable land, shortages of skilled construction workers.  Inflation is rampant in the sector.  Yet it hardly shows up in the inflation indices because of the way the government measures housing costs.

The new supply-side of housing (shifting the curve left) is not working for most Americans.  Taking existing homes off the market for rentals or the restriction of new supply through rising input costs, labor shortages, and zoning restrictions are severely reducing affordability and turning the country into  Landlord Nation.

Since most of the problems are policy-induced, they can be fixed by better and more comprehensive housing policy.   That is getting back to the old supply-side economics of the Reagan era where the supply curve shifts to the right, illustrated in the simple supply and demand graph.  Lower prices with more supply of homes.

Higher prices and lower supply may work for some, but it is certainly not good economics and makes for a more toxic political environment.

It is time for disruption in housing.  If you build it, it will come.