The Next Great Recession Begins
Source: What Is That Whistling Sound
Consider the semiconductor index which is thought of as the leading sector in the market.
There are multiple problems on this chart.
Firstly, a death cross is in place as the 50 day moving average has crossed below the longer term 200 day moving average.
Secondly, price has broken below the previous support areas in the 1293 to 1316 range.
Third, price is now threatening to lose the 1225 range which is support from the April sell off.
These factors show momentum has shifted clearly to the downside. While we anticipate a bounce soon, our view is a failed rebound to prior support and the declining 20 day moving average.
This monthly chart of the small cap index, the Russell 200 shows signs to trouble too.
So far this month we are down over 9% with a large bearish candle. This sector should be leading to the upside if all is well. It is not. In fact, since 2014 the Russell has been under performing the S&P 500 – that is bad.
Finally, gold is breaking out after a two year consolidation pattern.
That is bad. Unless you own gold!
Why is a zero yield asset out performing the market lately?
It is also rising in value despite a rising interest rate environment. That is double bad.
This oldest form of money is the go to place for investors when risks increase. Its safe haven role is well known and this as much as the other factors suggests that the expansion is over and the recession is near or has already begun.
Be mindful that the next bear market in stocks and bonds could be a doozy.
Source: http://whatisthatwhistlingsound.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-next-great-recession-begins.html
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