Cue “Exit the BREXIT” & Other GMM Victory Laps

Because we get a lot of things wrong in the trading business as nobody knows the future, and every decision to buy or sell is really just a probability adjusted or calculated guess, we thought we would take a victory lap on a few of our calls this year.  We backed these calls with real money.

The Midterm

We are students of politics, as all traders should be,  and constantly trying to sense the mood of the body politic, keeping our political bias at bay.  Note we predicted Trump would win the electoral college and HRC would win the popular vote the night before the election.  We know of no one making that specific prediction.

Took a lot of heat in our household on election night, as it was our fault!

Our February Midterm Bet

Because so many allow  emotions to cloud their judgements and base their opinions on noise from political pundits, it is easy to pick off the gullible.

Here is a bet we made with a Trump supporter waaaaaay back in February that the Dems would take more than 36 House seats.  Many large institutional investors would know our counterparty’s name:

On Feb 27, 2018, at 6:10 AM,  P…… p…com> wrote:

I’ll bet better than average for $1000

From: G….
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2018 6:15 AM
To: P
Subject: Re: 

Done.  P…. = less than 36 loss;  G.. > 36.  Push at 36.

Sent from my iPad

He just conceded yesterday.  It looks like Dems are going to flip 37-39 House seats.

Our friend was betting Trump would weather the midterms based on the strong economy.  We knew the day after the Inauguration, with hundreds of thousands women marching in the street,  the XX chromosome had woke and their energy and revulsion toward the president would carry into the midterm.

President Trump’s polling numbers with women was the political metric we followed the most over the past 18 months.

Sent by my Labrador

Always feels good to help a friend save a few bucks ($30-40 per share to be exact).

Upshot

There you have it folks.   We could add more, such as our calls where we stood alone on issues such as China trade, the Taiwan Strait,  Trump and North Korea,  the U.S. Treasury market, just to name a few.   Many of our views are now becoming conventional wisdom.

We could lay out many of the calls we got wrong, especially the call on a stock bear market earlier this year, though we believe we were just early.   But you must admit, we provide a different perspective and angle on the economy, the markets, and current events.

This is exactly why the Global Macro Monitor.  Turn off the cheerleaders and stay tuned.